{"id":22648,"date":"2026-01-09T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/?p=22648"},"modified":"2026-02-12T12:07:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T04:07:32","slug":"stock-return-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"How much is a reasonable stock return rate?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>How much is a reasonable stock return rate? This post is about the most important issue that all investors are concerned about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/#Why_is_there_no_answer\" >Why is there no answer?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/#What_is_a_reasonable_answer\" >What is a reasonable answer?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/#Related_content_from_my_book\" >Related content from my book<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/#Investment_gurus_views\" >Investment guru\u2019s views<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/#The_actual_performance_of_US_stock_market\" >The actual performance of U.S. stock market<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/#Conclusion\" >Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/#Related_articles\" >Related articles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_is_there_no_answer\"><\/span>Why is there no answer?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Why do investors care but have never been answered?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Most investors have not thought deeply about this most basic question.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I don\u2019t know how to answer, that is, I don\u2019t have the ability to explore this question.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If you can\u2019t give a reasonable answer, how can you analyze it? How to make a reasonable inference?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What number should be used to express the answer?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_a_reasonable_answer\"><\/span>What is a reasonable answer?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m going to use several angles to get this number:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The experience and opinions of the world-recognized investment master<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The fact that long-term real returns on stock markets around the world<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real ROI for Wall Street Professionals<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_content_from_my_book\"><\/span>Related content from my book<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>From my book &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.books.com.tw\/products\/0010935641\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Rules of Super Growth Stocks Investing<\/a>&#8220;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Section 1-2 lists three reasons why stocks will rise, 1. The continued growth of corporate earnings, 2. The growth of dividends, and 3. Changes in market valuation. The first two of these are reasons for long-term predictability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Investment_gurus_views\"><\/span>Investment guru\u2019s views<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Charles Ellis (this person is a heavyweight in the ETF and financial investment industry, investors who want to invest in ETFs should read this book), the author of the book &#8220;Winning the Loser&#8217;s Game&#8221;, once pointed out with sincerity the reason why investors fail, mainly because they want to beat the market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charles Ellis once said a wise saying in the investment community, &#8220;The biggest mistake investors make is to try to beat the market. Retail investors can never beat the market.&#8221; The problem is that most investors don&#8217;t believe this. With decades of rich investment experience, he came to the conclusion that &#8220;most investors do not beat the market; the market beats them.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the fact is that most investors cannot beat the market. Just look at the performance of the most professional stock funds to understand everything. Please note that the fund managers in charge of stock funds are already the investors who know the most about stocks. As for how poor the return on investment of ordinary retail investors is, it can be You know it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>John Bogle has said that the reasonable annual return rate of stock prices in the long run should be about 7%, of which dividends account for about 2% and earnings growth accounts for about 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_actual_performance_of_US_stock_market\"><\/span>The actual performance of U.S. stock market<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Compare the long-term annualized return of the S&amp;P 500 Index, including dividends, and the long-term annualized return of the S&amp;P 500 Index excluding dividends with John. Berger&#8217;s view is consistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the table in my post of &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/11\/17\/global-stock-markets\/\">Global stock markets performance comparision over the past 30 years in a table<\/a>&#8220;, investors can easily find the reasonable long-term annualized returns for each country&#8217;s stock markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using the free online investment tool I provide, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/09\/11\/sp-500-index-querier\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Querier to Annualized rate of return for S&amp;P 500 Index<\/a>&#8220;, you can easily find out: From 1970 to 2024, total 55 years, excluding dividend, the annualized rate of return (IRR) for Standard and Poor&#8217;s 500 Index was 7.85%; and was 10.95% if including dividend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can also use the free online investment tool &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/09\/15\/taiwan-stock-exchange\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Querier to Annualized rate of return for Taiwan Stock Exchange<\/a>&#8221; that I provide, and you can easily find out: From 1987 to 2024, total 38 years, excluding dividend, the annualized rate of return (IRR) for Taiwan Stock Exchange Index was 8.44%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I believe the quoted in the previous paragraph. John Bogle&#8217;s figure of 7% is based on the long-term annualized return of the S&amp;P 500 index, which represents the U.S. stock market, rather than a random guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Most investors still believe that the stock market is a place to get rich quickly, and do not want to believe the facts. They would rather believe in the media, believe in the so-called financial professionals, and leave their money to Wall Street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you can&#8217;t accept John. Berger&#8217;s advocated figure of 7% does not believe in history and facts, and advises you to stay away from the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before investing in the stock market, please think of the quotes from Charles Ellis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"154\" height=\"88\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/roi-1600x1200-1.jpg\" alt=\" stock return rate\" class=\"wp-image-22649\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: smartasset.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-d8a344e9-4edc-4dc1-b981-40aa61d258b5\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_articles\"><\/span>Related articles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2026\/01\/09\/stock-return-rate\/\">How much is a reasonable stock return rate?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/12\/04\/u-should-invest-etfs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Why most investors should invest ETFs tracking broad market?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/11\/17\/global-stock-markets\/\">Global stock markets performance comparision over the past 30 years in a table<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/01\/06\/any-reason-to-buy-mutual-fund\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Any strong reason to buy mutual fund?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/03\/10\/stock-funds-perform-poorly\/\">Why do stock funds perform so poorly? How bad is it?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/07\/25\/stock-worth-holding-forever\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500 index, the only stock worth holding forever<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/09\/11\/sp-500-index-querier\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Querier to Annualized rate of return for S&amp;P 500 Index<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/07\/25\/stock-worth-holding-forever\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investors should care annualized rate of return (IRR), How to calculate?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/08\/30\/irr-calculator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IRR Calculator<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/10\/16\/long-term-investors\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Stocks are the best bet for long-term investors<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The content of this site is the author\u2019s personal opinions and is for reference only. I am not responsible for the correctness, opinions, and immediacy of the content and information of the article. Readers must make their own judgments.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>I shall not be liable for any damages or other legal liabilities for the direct or indirect losses caused by the readers&#8217; direct or indirect reliance on and reference to the information on this site, or all the responsibilities arising therefrom, as a result of any investment behavior.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is a reasonable stock return rate? This post is about the most important issue that all investors are concerned about.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22649,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1412,737,14,610,35,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-return","category-charles-ellis","category-investing-concept","category-john-bogle","category-long-term-investing","category-market-index"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22648"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22648\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40816,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22648\/revisions\/40816"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}