{"id":27872,"date":"2025-09-20T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/?p=27872"},"modified":"2026-03-03T13:32:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T05:32:33","slug":"indicators-interpret-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Indicators helps to interpret the direction of stock market and economic climate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Innate_characteristics_of_stock_market\" >Innate characteristics of stock market<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Help_rather_than_relying_solely_on_guesswork\" >Help rather than relying solely on guesswork<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Stock_market_itself_is_full_of_uncertainty\" >Stock market itself is full of uncertainty<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Federal_Reserve_changes_interest_rates\" >Federal Reserve changes interest rates<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#A_widely_accepted_indicators\" >A widely accepted indicators<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Dow_Jones_Transportation_Index\" >Dow Jones Transportation Index<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Buffett_Indicator\" >Buffett Indicator<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Stock_market_overheating_indicator\" >Stock market overheating indicator<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Shiller_Indicator\" >Shiller Indicator<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Irrational_Exuberance_Index\" >Irrational Exuberance Index<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Useful_economic_indicators\" >Useful economic indicators<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#North_American_semiconductor_bb_value\" >North American semiconductor b\/b value<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Commodity_Copper_Prices\" >Commodity Copper Prices<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Lipstick_index\" >Lipstick index<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Cardboard_box_price\" >Cardboard box price<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Used_car_price_index\" >Used car price index<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-17\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Economic_and_recession\" >Economic and recession<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-18\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Sahm_Rule\" >Sahm Rule<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-19\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Jobless_claims\" >Jobless claims<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-20\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Leading_indicators\" >Leading indicators<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-21\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#New_manufacturing_orders\" >New manufacturing orders<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-22\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Auto_sales\" >Auto sales<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-23\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/#Related_articles\" >Related articles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Innate_characteristics_of_stock_market\"><\/span>Innate characteristics of stock market<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Help_rather_than_relying_solely_on_guesswork\"><\/span>Help rather than relying solely on guesswork<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>First of all, many people know that the stock market is a &#8220;leading&#8221; indicator of economic prosperity. But here comes the question. After all, what indicators or data are based on science, rather than divination or astrology, are indeed helpful in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Please note<\/strong>: I used the word &#8220;helpful&#8221; rather than accurate prediction. This needs to be clarified first. I personally don\u2019t believe that there is anyone or any method in the world that can accurately predict the direction of the stock market. If there is, that person must be a liar. This is what I posted in the article &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/08\/01\/timing-the-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Why timing the market or swing trading simply not work?<\/a>&#8221; and &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/07\/13\/investors-who-chase-for-touted-stocks\/\">Investors who chase for touted stocks<\/a>&#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Stock_market_itself_is_full_of_uncertainty\"><\/span>Stock market itself is full of uncertainty<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I have stated repeatedly in the following three posts: the stock market itself is full of extreme uncertainty. Throughout history, no one has ever been able to accurately predict the direction of the market. Although investing is not a pure science, there are ways to succeed in stock market investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/12\/19\/investing-has-no-formula\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investing has no formulas, but there are ways to invest successfully<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/04\/19\/successful-investors\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The main investment principles of successful investors are similar<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/10\/02\/investment-uncertainty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The uncertainty in investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Federal_Reserve_changes_interest_rates\"><\/span>Federal Reserve changes interest rates<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve will not raise or lower interest rates for no reason. When the Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates, it means that the economic climate &#8220;must&#8221; have undergone a major change. There is no doubt about this. For details, please see my previous posts: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/13\/market-rise-after-rate-cut\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Will Fed rate cut gurantee stock market rise?<\/a>&#8221; and &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/09\/29\/inflation-and-rate\/\">Tax, inflation and rate are the top three serious killers to investors<\/a>&#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_widely_accepted_indicators\"><\/span>A widely accepted indicators<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dow_Jones_Transportation_Index\"><\/span>Dow Jones Transportation Index<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is one of several stock market indexes created by Charles Dow, founder of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Company. It is one of the oldest U.S. stock market indexes on the market. It was first published on July 3, 1884. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dow Jones Transportation Index is an ancient economic indicator that has existed for more than 140 years. Historical experience has proven the value of this index. It is currently made up of 20 stocks in the Dow Jones Transportation Index &#8212; including railroad operators, airlines, package carriers and trucking companies &#8212; and poor performance could signal a weakening economy or, if they fail to rebound, could would prevent significant progress in the broader market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dow Jones Transportation Indexes are &#8220;a barometer of future economic activity, and they may be signaling that while a recession is not imminent, a slowdown may be coming.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>FedEx (ticker: FDX) is the most representative component of the Dow Jones Transportation Index, which is why many Wall Street analysts must track this stock. FedEx (ticker: FDX) is the most representative component of the Dow Jones Transportation Index, which is why many Wall Street analysts must track this stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Buffett_Indicator\"><\/span>Buffett Indicator<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Buffett indicator calculates the ratio of the total market value of the U.S. stock market to GDP (gross domestic product) to observe whether the stock market value is supported by the real economy. If the indicator is between 75% and 90%, it is a reasonable range, and if it exceeds 120%, it means that the stock market is overvalued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have analyzed this part in detail in my post &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/06\/27\/buffett-indicator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Powerful and persuasive Buffett indicator, whether market is overheat<\/a>&#8221; and I will not repeat all the content here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Stock_market_overheating_indicator\"><\/span>Stock market overheating indicator<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Shiller_Indicator\"><\/span>Shiller Indicator<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE), also known as the cyclically adjusted earnings ratio, was proposed by Nobel Prize winner in Economics Robert Shiller in 1998. It is calculated by dividing the actual stock price, adjusted for inflation, by the average of the company&#8217;s inflation-adjusted earnings per share over the past 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The main purpose of the Shiller P\/E ratio is to provide a market valuation indicator after adjusting for economic cycle fluctuations. It measures a market&#8217;s valuation level by comparing market prices to the average real earnings over the past decade. Compared with the traditional P\/E ratio, the Shiller P\/E ratio can better reflect the long-term trend of the market and reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations on the evaluation results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Irrational_Exuberance_Index\"><\/span>Irrational Exuberance Index<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The irrational exuberance index proposed by Alan Greenspan in 1996. For details, please see my post of &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/11\/irrational-exuberance-indicator\/\">Irrational Exuberance Indicator<\/a>&#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Useful_economic_indicators\"><\/span>Useful economic indicators<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"North_American_semiconductor_bb_value\"><\/span>North American semiconductor b\/b value<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Semiconductors are modern oil. Observing the production and shipments of semiconductors can also effectively detect the global economic boom. B\/B value (Book to bill ratio) is the ratio of the total amount of &#8220;future orders received&#8221; and &#8220;actual shipments&#8221; of semiconductor equipment manufacturers in North America. Book represents the total amount of orders received by the manufacturer, and Bill represents the amount of shipments by the manufacturer. It is the distribution center for semiconductor equipment manufacturers in North America, so this indicator is regarded as an important basis for observing the rise and fall of the global semiconductor industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (ticker: SOXX) is the index most directly related to this indicator. Regarding the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, investors can refer to my post &#8220;Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Annualized Return Query over the Years&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Commodity_Copper_Prices\"><\/span>Commodity Copper Prices<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>First, in terms of commodity prices, reports pointed out that copper prices have dropped by 20% from the high in 2023, zinc prices have dropped by 30%, and aluminum prices have dropped by 20%, all showing significant declines. Copper, in particular, is widely used in infrastructure, automobiles, home appliances, etc., and is regarded as a leading indicator of the economy. The decline in copper prices also reflects the market&#8217;s sense of economic stagnation in mainland China, which accounts for 60% of global copper demand.<br>to worry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Lipstick_index\"><\/span>Lipstick index<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Lipstick_index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lipstick index<\/a> was proposed by Leonardo Lauder, the former president of the Estee Lauder Group. He analyzed Estee Lauder&#8217;s actual revenue figures and found that lipstick sales bucked the trend during the economic recession. As a &#8220;cheap and unnecessary item&#8221;, lipstick can play a &#8220;comforting&#8221; role for consumers. In an economic downturn, people will still have a strong desire to consume, so they will turn to cheaper purchases. Products of. During the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for cosmetics dropped as there was little need to put on makeup to go out, and lipstick sales suffered the biggest blow, causing the lipstick index to die out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, Estee Lauder (ticker: EL) and Liya (ticker: LRLCY) are both representative stocks of the lipstick index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Cardboard_box_price\"><\/span>Cardboard box price<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2022, the Cardboard Box price shows that the United States is about to fall into recession, as evidenced by cardboard boxes, because low waste paper prices hide hidden economic worries. The main theoretical basis is that the demand for cardboard is closely related to the sales of goods and other economic activities. In particular, part of modern people&#8217;s shopping occurs on e-commerce platforms. All e-commerce shipments must rely on cardboard boxes. The market demand for cardboard boxes can indeed Reveals consumer demand for goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, International Paper (ticker: IP ) is the stock that best represents global paper products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Used_car_price_index\"><\/span>Used car price index<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The used car price industry index is generally used as a leading indicator of inflation because consumers tend to purchase second-hand cars when considering their wallets during periods of rising prices, rather than buying new cars during boom times. Retail prices of used cars in the United States usually follow wholesale prices. The <a href=\"https:\/\/site.manheim.com\/en\/services\/consulting\/used-vehicle-value-index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Manheim Used Car Value Index<\/a> reflects the wholesale price paid by dealers for subsequent retail sales of used cars and is the primary indicator for tracking used car price trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Economic_and_recession\"><\/span>Economic and recession<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sahm_Rule\"><\/span>Sahm Rule<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With 11 recessions occurring since 1950, Sahm Rule backtest is 100% accurate and is a reportable recession indicator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the inventor of Sam&#8217;s rule reminded that this rule has prerequisites, and she personally has repeatedly denied its accuracy in predicting the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the detail, please see my post of &#8220;Sahm Rule, a 100% accurate recession indicator&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Jobless_claims\"><\/span>Jobless claims<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Through weekly statistics on the number of registered unemployment benefits, we can truly reflect and track the weekly unemployed population. In contrast, the employment population is not a good indicator of business cycle. Since the employment rate usually lags behind changes in the business environment, the employment rate indicator does not give us enough information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Leading_indicators\"><\/span>Leading indicators<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"New_manufacturing_orders\"><\/span>New manufacturing orders<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the proportion of manufacturing in U.S. GDP is currently declining, households and companies will not be able to place large orders if they have poor economic expectations. Therefore, the volume of manufacturing orders is mainly calculated and published by the US Supply Management organization. This index can also clearly illustrate the current buying sentiment in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Auto_sales\"><\/span>Auto sales<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>New car sales are a good indicator of prosperity. In contrast, some people are bound to ask why new home sales are not included? Because the stability of this indicator is not high, monthly corrections are often required; in addition, because it requires a large number of corrections, its release time is much slower than other indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"178\" height=\"100\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/indicator-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"Indicator\" class=\"wp-image-27873\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: Ideogram<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_articles\"><\/span>Related articles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/\">Indicators helps to interpret the direction of stock market and economic climate<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/26\/cape-is-more-popular\/\">Why Shiller CAPE is more popular than the Buffett indicator?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sahm Rule, a 100% accurate recession indicator, was triggered<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/11\/irrational-exuberance-indicator\/\">Irrational Exuberance Indicator<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/06\/27\/buffett-indicator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Powerful and persuasive Buffett indicator, whether market is overheat<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/10\/05\/philadelphia-semiconductor\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Querier to Annualized rate of return for Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/12\/19\/investing-has-no-formula\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investing has no formulas, but there are ways to invest successfully<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/02\/28\/factor-luck\/\">How big a factor does luck play in investment success?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/04\/19\/successful-investors\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The main investment principles of successful investors are similar<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/09\/06\/chance-of-making-mistakes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Invest success depends on less chance of making mistakes<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/03\/mistakes-of-omission-and-mistakes-of-commission\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mistakes of omission and mistakes of commission<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/10\/02\/investment-uncertainty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The uncertainty in investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/08\/01\/timing-the-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Why timing the market or swing trading simply not work?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/07\/13\/investors-who-chase-for-touted-stocks\/\">Investors who chase for touted stocks<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a 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href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/07\/04\/how-investors-should-look-at-economic-trends-and-forecasts\/\">How investors should look at economic trends and forecasts?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The content of this site is the author\u2019s personal opinions and is for reference only. I am not responsible for the correctness, opinions, and immediacy of the content and information of the article. Readers must make their own judgments.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>I shall not be liable for any damages or other legal liabilities for the direct or indirect losses caused by the readers&#8217; direct or indirect reliance on and reference to the information on this site, or all the responsibilities arising therefrom, as a result of any investment behavior.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After all, what indicators or data are based on science, rather than divination or astrology, are indeed helpful in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27873,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1288,809,1595,1594,813,404,110,986],"tags":[1290,585,1289,1291,902],"class_list":["post-27872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-indicator","category-basic-materials","category-bear-market","category-bull-market","category-commodity","category-economics","category-semiconductor","category-transportation","tag-el","tag-fdx","tag-ip","tag-lrlcy","tag-soxx"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27872"}],"version-history":[{"count":31,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27872\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39025,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27872\/revisions\/39025"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}