{"id":28905,"date":"2024-08-03T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-03T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/?p=28905"},"modified":"2026-03-03T13:31:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T05:31:30","slug":"sahm-rule-100-accurate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/","title":{"rendered":"Sahm Rule, a 100% accurate recession indicator, was triggered"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#What_is_Sahm_Rule\" >What is Sahm Rule?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Sahm_invented\" >Sahm invented<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Rule\" >Rule<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Historical_verification\" >Historical verification<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#100_Accuracy\" >100% Accuracy<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Unusual_events_may_cause_distortions\" >Unusual events may cause distortions<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Latest_cases\" >Latest cases<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Fed_to_start_raising_interest_rates\" >Fed to start raising interest rates<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Unemployment_rate_rose_to_43_in_August\" >Unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Poor_corporate_financial_reports\" >Poor corporate financial reports<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#US_stocks_plummeted_on_August_2\" >U.S. stocks plummeted on August 2<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Sahm_rule_is_no_longer_valid\" >Sahm rule is no longer valid<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Explanation_of_the_inventor\" >Explanation of the inventor<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Verify_the_instance\" >Verify the instance<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Cconclusion\" >Cconclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/#Related_articles\" >Related articles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_Sahm_Rule\"><\/span>What is Sahm Rule?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sahm_invented\"><\/span>Sahm invented<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking back at U.S. history, whenever the unemployment rate rises, even if the increase is small, it almost always predicts that the economy is in recession\u2014this pattern was first published in a 2019 paper by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm proposed in. Her analysis became known as the &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Sahm_rule\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sahm \u200b\u200bRule<\/a>&#8221; and is considered a recession indicator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Rule\"><\/span>Rule<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The rule, developed by former Federal Reserve economist and columnist Claudia Sahm, assumes that the economy begins to enter a recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage point or more from the previous 12-month low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Historical_verification\"><\/span>Historical verification<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><th>Unemployment rate&nbsp;%<\/th><th>Sahm value<\/th><th>Time when Sahm &gt; 0.5<\/th><th>Recession starts&#8230;<\/th><\/tr><tr><td>3.50%<\/td><td>0.63<\/td><td>Nov 1953<\/td><td>4 months prior (Jul 1953)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.50%<\/td><td>0.50<\/td><td>Oct 1957<\/td><td>2 months prior (Aug 1957)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5.80%<\/td><td>0.60<\/td><td>Nov 1959<\/td><td>5 months&nbsp;<em>later<\/em>&nbsp;(Apr 1960)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.40%<\/td><td>0.77<\/td><td>Mar 1970<\/td><td>3 months prior (Dec 1969)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5.50%<\/td><td>0.60<\/td><td>Jul 1974<\/td><td>8 months prior (Nov 1973)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6.30%<\/td><td>0.53<\/td><td>Feb 1980<\/td><td>1 month prior (Jan 1980)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8.30%<\/td><td>0.60<\/td><td>Nov 1981<\/td><td>4 months prior (Jul 1981)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5.90%<\/td><td>0.53<\/td><td>Oct 1990<\/td><td>3 months prior (Jul 1990)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.50%<\/td><td>0.50<\/td><td>Jun 2001<\/td><td>3 months prior (Mar 2001)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.90%<\/td><td>0.53<\/td><td>Feb 2008<\/td><td>2 months prior (Dec 2007)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14.80%<\/td><td>4.00<\/td><td>Apr 2020<\/td><td>2 months prior (Feb 2020)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.30%<\/td><td>0.50<\/td><td>Aug 2024<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Table: Historical accuracy of the Sahm rule; Alert coincides with recession (from Wiki)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"100_Accuracy\"><\/span>100% Accuracy <span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With 11 recessions occurring since 1950, Sahm Rule backtest is 100% accurate and is a reportable recession indicator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Unusual_events_may_cause_distortions\"><\/span>Unusual events may cause distortions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sahm herself expressed reservations that the rule she pioneered was based on historical patterns, but that the economy could be distorted if it was affected by unusually unpredictable events, such as the disruption of the new coronavirus epidemic. &#8220;Sahm Rule&#8221; may not apply in this unusual situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sahm said: Sahm&#8217;s rule is an empirical law. It is not a proposition or a natural law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Latest_cases\"><\/span>Latest cases<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Fed_to_start_raising_interest_rates\"><\/span>Fed to start raising interest rates<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>On July 31, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, and Chairman Jerome Powell also hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Unemployment_rate_rose_to_43_in_August\"><\/span>Unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest data released on the evening of August 2 showed that non-farm employment increased by only 114,000 in July, a new low in three and a half years. The U.S. unemployment rate in July increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 4.3%, exceeding market expectations of 4.1% and approaching a three-year high. Economists have previously pointed out that even if the unemployment rate rises by only 0.1 percentage points in July, it will trigger the &#8220;Sam&#8217;s Rule&#8221;, a leading indicator with an accuracy of 100% in predicting an economic recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the latest unemployment rate calculation, the U.S. unemployment rate has soared by 0.6% from the low point this year. After several months of unexpected surges in the unemployment rate, the Sam rule, which predicts recession based on the unemployment rate, has finally been triggered, which may mean that the U.S. economy has begun Entering recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Poor_corporate_financial_reports\"><\/span>Poor corporate financial reports<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Most of the second-quarter financial reports of major U.S. listed companies have been announced. Except for a few that performed well, most fell short of investors&#8217; expectations. U.S. stocks have experienced sharp ups and downs in the past two weeks, which is completely different from the performance in the first half of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"US_stocks_plummeted_on_August_2\"><\/span>U.S. stocks plummeted on August 2<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sure enough, on August 2, when Sam&#8217;s Rule, a 100% accurate economic recession indicator, was triggered, the U.S. stock market plummeted that day:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 494.82 points, or 1.21%, to close at 40,347.97 points.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Nasdaq fell 405.26 points, or 2.3%, to 17,194.15.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 fell 75.62 points, or 1.37%, to close at 5,446.68.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 373.60 points, or 7.14%, to close at 4,859.59 points.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CBOE Volatility Index VIX surged 4.8 points, a surge of 25.82%, to close at 23.82 points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sahm_rule_is_no_longer_valid\"><\/span>Sahm rule is no longer valid<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Explanation_of_the_inventor\"><\/span>Explanation of the inventor<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Claudia Sahm, the originator of the &#8220;Sahm \u200b\u200bRule&#8221;, believes that the current rise in unemployment is no longer due to a weakening of market demand for labor, but rather to an increase in labor supply. For example, the surge in immigration to the United States after the epidemic promoted the recovery of the job market, which led to an increase in the unemployment rate. It can no longer be used as a reference as a &#8220;recession indicator.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On August 6, 2024, Claudia Sahm, the originator of the &#8220;Sam Rule&#8221; and chief economist of New Century Advisors, participated in a talk show to discuss the Sam Rule and how it affects the job market. Claudia Sahm believes that considering the changes in the current US job market, the Sahm Rule has become somewhat ineffective and does not prove that the US economy has fallen into recession. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sahm believes that the current rise in unemployment is no longer due to a weakening of market demand for labor, but rather to an increase in labor supply. For example, the surge in immigration to the United States after the epidemic promoted the recovery of the job market, which led to an increase in the unemployment rate. It can no longer be used as a reference indicator of recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Verify_the_instance\"><\/span>Verify the instance<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>On January 10, 2025, analyst Chris Anstey said, With the unemployment rate back below 4%, we can now say with certainty that the &#8220;Sahm Rule&#8221; triggered in July was a false signal. The rule says the economy is at the beginning of a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises at least 0.5 percentage point from its low over the past 12 months. Six months have passed, the unemployment rate is falling, and there is no sign of a recession. This turned out not to be an accurate signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Cconclusion\"><\/span>Cconclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>All this points to the fact that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly start to cut interest rates, which also shows that the U.S. economic situation is beginning to reverse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"200\" height=\"79\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/sam-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"Sahm Rule\" class=\"wp-image-28910\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: wiki<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_articles\"><\/span>Related articles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/26\/cape-is-more-popular\/\">Why Shiller CAPE is more popular than the Buffett indicator?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/07\/20\/fedex-economic-prosperity\/\">Fedex directly linked to economic prosperity, how does Fedex make money? why it&#8217;s downward? <\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/09\/20\/indicators-interpret-market\/\">Indicators helps to interpret the direction of stock market and economic climate<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/search?pglt=299&amp;q=US+credit+rating+downgrade+by+Fitch%2C+the+reasons+and+implications&amp;cvid=a98b4c4ac7554a71b331287330439829&amp;gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgYIABBFGDkyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQ6wcYQNIBBzgzN2owajGoAgCwAgA&amp;FORM=ANSPA1&amp;PC=CNNDDB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">US credit rating downgrade by Fitch, the reasons and implications<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/11\/irrational-exuberance-indicator\/\">Irrational Exuberance Indicator<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/04\/commercial-oriented-firms\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Commercial-oriented firms perform better in recessions<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/03\/sahm-rule-100-accurate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sahm Rule, a 100% accurate recession indicator, was triggered<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/01\/04\/recession-ahead\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Amid global recession, investor&#8217;s hard days still ahead<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/08\/07\/q2-earning-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Why market fall after Q2 2004 earning report?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/06\/27\/buffett-indicator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Powerful and persuasive Buffett indicator, whether market is overheat<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/27\/currency-exchange-risk\/\">Should investors care about currency exchange risk when investing in US stocks?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/12\/27\/inflation-reduction-act\/\">The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on US stocks<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/09\/29\/inflation-and-rate\/\">Tax, inflation and rate are the top three serious killers to investors<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/07\/04\/how-investors-should-look-at-economic-trends-and-forecasts\/\">How investors should look at economic trends and forecasts?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/06\/26\/gdp-and-stock-prices\/\">The relationship between GDP and stock prices<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/09\/29\/us-gross-domestic-product-gdp-querier\/\">US Gross domestic product (GDP) querier<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The content of this site is the author\u2019s personal opinions and is for reference only. I am not responsible for the correctness, opinions, and immediacy of the content and information of the article. Readers must make their own judgments.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>I shall not be liable for any damages or other legal liabilities for the direct or indirect losses caused by the readers&#8217; direct or indirect reliance on and reference to the information on this site, or all the responsibilities arising therefrom, as a result of any investment behavior.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With 11 recessions occurring since 1950, Sahm Rule backtest is 100% accurate and is a reportable recession indicator.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28910,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1288,1595,404,1311],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-indicator","category-bear-market","category-economics","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28905","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28905"}],"version-history":[{"count":25,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28905\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39027,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28905\/revisions\/39027"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}