{"id":31473,"date":"2025-02-20T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/?p=31473"},"modified":"2025-11-19T10:43:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T02:43:16","slug":"statistics-can-be-deceiving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/02\/20\/statistics-can-be-deceiving\/","title":{"rendered":"Statistics can be deceiving"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Statistics might be a trap!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/02\/20\/statistics-can-be-deceiving\/#Shoot_before_set_target\" >Shoot before set target<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/02\/20\/statistics-can-be-deceiving\/#Masters_opinion\" >Masters&#8217; opinion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/02\/20\/statistics-can-be-deceiving\/#I_can_get_the_statistics_I_want\" >I can get the statistics I want<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/02\/20\/statistics-can-be-deceiving\/#Related_articles\" >Related articles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Shoot_before_set_target\"><\/span>Shoot before set target<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Almost every opinion leader who has read this book, including Munger, agrees that the most important point is that in order to be truly proficient in a field, in addition to talent, one must invest about 10000 hours of effective training.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you know statistics, market surveys, or research, you might understand the accuracy of statistics highly dependent on the design of questions, the methods or techniques of questioning, and the interpretation of data. That is, the same set of data, everyone&#8217;s views can be different. Why is this so? There are many reasons: for example, lack of professionalism, sample size, bias, errors, preconceived notions, target first and then shoot arrows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But one of the most serious and most capable of changing statistical results is preconceived ideas &#8220;Shoot before set target&#8221;\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500because statistics and market surveys belong to more fields of non-science, and the mathematics and statistics involved in the middle are just tools . It is people who report and interpret in the end; as long as there are people, there will be prejudice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Masters_opinion\"><\/span>Masters&#8217; opinion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Charlie Munger made a thought-provoking comment on this phenomenon: &#8220;<span style=\"font-size: revert;\">To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.<\/span> &#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mark Twain once said an interesting quote: &#8220;There are three kinds of lies: lies, hateful lies, and statistics.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keynes said: &#8220;When statistics seem unreasonable, I have found that sense is usually wiser than statistics!&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"I_can_get_the_statistics_I_want\"><\/span><strong>I can get the statistics I want<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I quote Graham in section 5-2 in my book of &#8220;The Rules of Super Growth Stocks Investing&#8221;, he said:  &#8220;The combination of precise formulas with highly imprecise assumptions can be used to establish, or rather to justify, practically any value one wishes.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have published an article on this blog, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/08\/non-quantitative-factors-determine-success-or-failure-of-an-investment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Non-quantitative factors determine success or failure of an investment<\/a>&#8221; discussed this topic. In short, in order to get the results I want, I can design the results that will meet my final expectations. The survey method, and then packaged with statistical methods, can be used to increase persuasiveness when publishing. In fact, our society, including elections, shopping malls, and Wall Street, uses such methods every day. Modern people actually live in such an environment, but it is difficult for us to notice it!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"213\" height=\"120\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/statistics.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31531\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nccu.edu.tw\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nccu.edu.tw<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_articles\"><\/span>Related articles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/02\/20\/statistics-can-be-deceiving\/\">Statistics can be deceiving<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/05\/27\/outliers-10000-hours\/\">Outliers &#8211; great finding on 10000 hours<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/11\/18\/doom-to-fail-if-not-good-at\/\">Doom to fail if you&#8217;re not good at investing<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/03\/22\/investment-return-numbers\/\">Investment Return, be careful of the numbers pitfall<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The content of this site is the author\u2019s personal opinions and is for reference only. I am not responsible for the correctness, opinions, and immediacy of the content and information of the article. Readers must make their own judgments.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>I shall not be liable for any damages or other legal liabilities for the direct or indirect losses caused by the readers&#8217; direct or indirect reliance on and reference to the information on this site, or all the responsibilities arising therefrom, as a result of any investment behavior.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The most serious and most capable of changing statistical results is preconceived ideas &#8220;Shoot before set target&#8221;\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500because statistics and market surveys belong to more fields of non-science, and the mathematics and statistics involved in the middle are just tools . It is people who report and interpret in the end; as long as there are people, there will be prejudice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31531,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1424,15,68,42,539],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-historical-statistic","category-charlie-munger","category-insight-second-level-thinking","category-john-maynard-keynes","category-thinking"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31473"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40087,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31473\/revisions\/40087"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31531"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}