{"id":31549,"date":"2025-05-25T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-25T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/?p=31549"},"modified":"2025-06-07T11:12:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T03:12:07","slug":"investors-hope-as-they-wish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/","title":{"rendered":"Investors hope everything will develop as they wish"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/#Human_nature\" >Human nature<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/#Wishful_thinking\" >Wishful thinking<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/#Whistle_to_courage\" >Whistle to courage<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/#Time_will_tell\" >Time will tell<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/#Conclusion\" >Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/#Related_articles\" >Related articles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Human_nature\"><\/span>Human nature<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After investment failure, most investors have never been able to accept the fact that &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/09\/01\/investment-is-not-voting\/\">Investing is not voting<\/a>&#8221; or &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/09\/04\/negative-message-investment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Negative message is part of investment<\/a>&#8221; After all, this is human nature and few can overcome it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But hope does not necessarily happen. Expectation is an imagination that may not come true. Reality and expectation are always two ends of the scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An optimistic personality is good in life, but it is not a help in investing, nor is it one of the necessary traits for successful investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wishful_thinking\"><\/span>Wishful thinking<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Human psychology seems to require a spirit of false encouragement to mask the uncertainty inherent in investment decisions. In his book &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Where-Are-Customers-Yachts-Street\/dp\/0471770892\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Where are the customer&#8217;s yachts<\/a>?&#8221;, Fred Schwed wrote a classic comment about Wall Street: \u201cIt seems that the immature mind has a regrettable tendency to believe, as actually true, that which it only hopes to be true.&#8221;, In this case, &#8220;the idea that financial futures are unpredictable is so unpalatable that it loses its place in the consciousness of Wall Street people. &#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Robert Shiller, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics and author of the book &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Irrational-Exuberance-3rd-Robert-Shiller\/dp\/0691166269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Irrational Exuberance<\/a>&#8221; said: &#8220;Another reason that the differences between professionals\u2019 performance and the market\u2019s performance are small is that institutional investors believe they must have reasons for what they do,<br>reasons that can be justified to a committee. They feel they do not have the authority to make trades in accordance with their own best judgments, which are often intuitive. Their obeisance to conventional wisdom hampers their investment performance.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Whistle_to_courage\"><\/span>Whistle to courage<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Keynes agreed that this kind of fake correctness is like whistling in the dark to embolden the stock market. &#8220;It is nothing more than making us feel calm and comfortable. We deliberately hide how ignorant we are about the future.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keynes has a famous saying that applies here: &#8220;We just don&#8217;t know what the future holds.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Time_will_tell\"><\/span>Time will tell<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Keynes said in his masterpiece &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/General-Theory-Employment-Interest-Money\/dp\/1573921394\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money<\/a>&#8220;: &#8220;Skilled investment has a social purpose, which is to defeat &#8216;time&#8217; and &#8216;ignorance&#8217; &#8220;These two dark forces cloud the future.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>George Church: &#8220;Each decade has its own peculiar folly, but the essence is the same: the conviction that what has happened recently will continue into the future, even if the sky falls.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The trick is to differentiate between what \uff02you want to\uff02 happen and what \uff02you know\uff02 will happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"192\" height=\"120\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/hope-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"Hope\" class=\"wp-image-31563\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: Ideogram<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_articles\"><\/span>Related articles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/25\/investors-hope-as-they-wish\/\">Investors hope everything will develop as they wish<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/06\/06\/seeking-facts\/\">Seeking facts is the first step in investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/08\/06\/most-investors-problem-is-concepts-and-psychology-not-stock-selection\/\">Most investors&#8217; problem is concept and psychology, not stock selection<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/10\/02\/investment-uncertainty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The uncertainty in investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/09\/04\/negative-message-investment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Negative message is part of investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/09\/01\/investment-is-not-voting\/\">Investing is not voting<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/12\/19\/investing-has-no-formula\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investing has no formulas, but there are ways to invest successfully<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/05\/17\/risk-vs-uncertainty\/\">Risk vs Uncertainty<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/10\/02\/investment-uncertainty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The uncertainty in investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/03\/10\/investment-vs-speculation\/\">Investment vs speculation<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The content of this site is the author\u2019s personal opinions and is for reference only. I am not responsible for the correctness, opinions, and immediacy of the content and information of the article. Readers must make their own judgments.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>I shall not be liable for any damages or other legal liabilities for the direct or indirect losses caused by the readers&#8217; direct or indirect reliance on and reference to the information on this site, or all the responsibilities arising therefrom, as a result of any investment behavior.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>But hope does not necessarily happen. Expectation is an imagination that may not come true. Reality and expectation are always two ends of the scale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,17,42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing-behavior","category-investing-psychology","category-john-maynard-keynes"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31549"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31549\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36932,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31549\/revisions\/36932"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}