{"id":33061,"date":"2025-01-13T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/?p=33061"},"modified":"2025-03-17T20:11:52","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T12:11:52","slug":"sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 bull return in a row, what will happen next, based on past century data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_86 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#Bull_market_for_two_consecutive_years\" >Bull market for two consecutive years<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#How_did_the_S_P_500_index_come_about\" >How did the S&amp;P 500 index come about?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#Has_this_ever_happened_before\" >Has this ever happened before?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#Painful_memories_of_these_two_periods\" >Painful memories of these two periods<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#1935_to_1941\" >1935 to 1941<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#1995_to_2000\" >1995 to 2000<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#Closing_words\" >Closing words<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/#Related_articles\" >Related articles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bull_market_for_two_consecutive_years\"><\/span>Bull market for two consecutive years<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2023 and 2024, the performance of U.S. stocks was very impressive, with the S&amp;P 500 index, representing U.S. stocks, achieving a rare return of more than 20% for two consecutive years. Investors are certainly happy, but many are curious about S&amp;P 500 bull return in a row, what will happen next, from past 100 years data?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_did_the_S_P_500_index_come_about\"><\/span>How did the S&amp;P 500 index come about?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the 1920s, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s<\/a> began operating multiple indices, including industrial, transportation, utilities and financial stock indices. On March 4, 1957, the company decided to merge the above four indexes into one, which became the S&amp;P 500 index that everyone sees today, including the stocks of 500 large U.S. listed companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Has_this_ever_happened_before\"><\/span>Has this ever happened before?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the figures in my post of &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/08\/11\/a-table-comparing-index\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A table comparing S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over the years since its inception and annualized returns<\/a>&#8220;, since the S&amp;P 500 index was officially launched in 1957. It really only happened once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if the S&amp;P 500 index was restored by back-tracing the industrial, transportation, utilities and financial indices operated by Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s from the 1920s to 1956, this happened twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>In the past 100 years, the S&amp;P 500 index returns have risen by more than 20% for two consecutive years twice<\/strong><\/em>. So what happens after S&amp;P 500 index return exceeds 20% in a row?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Painful_memories_of_these_two_periods\"><\/span>Painful memories of these two periods<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I recall the situation at that time as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1935_to_1941\"><\/span>1935 to 1941<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Year<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>% Change<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1941<\/td><td>-17.86%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1940<\/td><td>-15.29%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1939<\/td><td>-5.45%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1938<\/td><td>25.21%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1937<\/td><td>-38.59%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1936<\/td><td>27.92%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1935<\/td><td>41.37%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In late 1937, the U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline as part of a larger economic recession that lasted through much of 1938.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This recession, known as the 1937-1938 recession, was the third worst recession in the United States during the 20th century. The recession was caused by a variety of factors, including: confused signals from the government about its policy objectives, a contraction in the money supply, and contractionary fiscal policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. stock market briefly rebounded for one year in 1938, but then had negative returns for three consecutive years, and had to wait until 1942 to return to positive returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1995_to_2000\"><\/span>1995 to 2000<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Year<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>% Change<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2000<\/td><td>-10.14%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1999<\/td><td>19.53%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1998<\/td><td>26.67%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1997<\/td><td>31.01%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1996<\/td><td>20.26%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1995<\/td><td>34.11%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Then came the dot-com bubble, and coupled with the 9\/11 attacks in September 2001, the U.S. stock market performed poorly throughout the decade from 2000 to 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Excluding the impact of inflation, it took the S&amp;P another four years to return to its 2000 high, while the Nasdaq didn\u2019t fully recover until March 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Closing_words\"><\/span>Closing words<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the past 100 years, there have been two times when the S&amp;P 500 index returns exceeded 20% for two consecutive years, representing a bull market. The results were both tragic, causing the U.S. stock market to perform poorly for many years. This proves the old saying that stock prices cannot grow to the sky and that we should always be prepared for danger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Note<\/strong>: A 20% rise in the stock market represents a bull market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"100\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/rally2y-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 bull return in a row\" class=\"wp-image-33065\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: The Barron&#8217;s<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_articles\"><\/span>Related articles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/09\/11\/sp-500-index-querier\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Querier to Annualized rate of return for S&amp;P 500 Index<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/11\/irrational-exuberance-indicator\/\">Irrational Exuberance Indicator<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/01\/02\/sp-500-next-year-return\/\">S&amp;P 500 index next year performance, based on last century record<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/01\/13\/sp-500-bull-return-in-a-row\/\">S&amp;P 500 bull return in a row, what will happen next, based on past century data<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/11\/17\/global-stock-markets\/\">Global stock markets performance comparision over the past 30 years in a table<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/01\/31\/buffett-return-rate\/\">Return rate comparison among Buffett portfolio, Berkshire stock price, S&amp;P 500 over the years<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/01\/08\/2022-sp-500-constitutent-stock-performance\/\">2022 S&amp;P 500 Constitutent Stocks Performance<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/10\/23\/sp-500-vs-nasdaq-100-index\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500 vs. Nasdaq 100 index, how to choose a market index?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/07\/25\/stock-worth-holding-forever\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500 index, the only stock worth holding forever<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/10\/31\/14481\/\">S&amp;P 500 P\/E ratio has been rising in the past century, S&amp;P 500 PE Ratio and Average Querier<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/08\/11\/a-table-comparing-index\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A table comparing S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over the years since its inception and annualized returns<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The content of this site is the author\u2019s personal opinions and is for reference only. I am not responsible for the correctness, opinions, and immediacy of the content and information of the article. Readers must make their own judgments.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>I shall not be liable for any damages or other legal liabilities for the direct or indirect losses caused by the readers&#8217; direct or indirect reliance on and reference to the information on this site, or all the responsibilities arising therefrom, as a result of any investment behavior.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the past 100 years, there have been two times S&#038;P 500 bull return in a row, more than 20% annual return rate. The results were both tragic, causing the U.S. stock market to perform poorly for many years. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33065,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,1424,1412],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-index","category-historical-statistic","category-investment-return"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33061"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33426,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33061\/revisions\/33426"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}