{"id":6354,"date":"2022-11-16T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-16T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/?p=6354"},"modified":"2025-06-25T09:21:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T01:21:14","slug":"important-and-knowable-info","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/","title":{"rendered":"Information investors need should be important and knowable"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/#People_ignore_important_and_knowable\" >People ignore important and knowable<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/#Buffetts_view\" >Buffett&#8217;s view<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/#Beware_of_so_called_experts\" >Beware of so called experts<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/#Why_modern_media_can_be_questioned\" >Why modern media can be questioned?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/#Wall_Street_misses_the_point_not_important_and_knowable_at_all\" >Wall Street misses the point, not important and knowable at all<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/#Fishers_view_same_as_Buffetts_important_and_knowable\" >Fisher&#8217;s view, same as Buffett&#8217;s important and knowable<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/#Related_articles\" >Related articles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"People_ignore_important_and_knowable\"><\/span><strong>People ignore important and knowable<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In<a href=\"https:\/\/www.oaktreecapital.com\/docs\/default-source\/memos\/expert-opinion.pdf\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.oaktreecapital.com\/docs\/default-source\/memos\/expert-opinion.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> January 10, 2017 memo, Howard Marks<\/a> expressed his views on the troubles experts is facing&#8211; from prominent fund managers to the key media. They can&#8217;t correctly predict Trump&#8217;s presidency, Brexit, and other unexpected events. (Note: The final results of the two major events of Trump\u2019s election as president and Brexit are contrary to all famous polls or mainstream media predictions). Why? Because they violate &#8220;important and knowable&#8221; principle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Buffetts_view\"><\/span><strong>Buffett&#8217;s view<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Marks shared that he dined with Buffett a year ago. During the dinner, Marks said that Buffett raised the crux of the problem with forecasting: &#8220;Everyone is focused on what&#8217;s &#8216;unknowable&#8217;.&#8221; Regarding the unknowable, Buffett&#8217;s view is: people is powerless. This is actually exactly the same view as Keynes, who said: &#8220;We simply don\u2019t know.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Marks, Buffett pointed out that &#8220;for a piece of information to be worth pursuing, it should be &#8216;important&#8217;, and it should be &#8216;knowable&#8217;.'&#8221; More than ever, investors are craving insight into the macro future because it matters: It will drive the market. But there&#8217;s a snag: Warren and I both consider these things largely unknowable. He rarely bases his investment actions on them, and neither does Oaktree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Note: Buffett once said: &#8220;When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they&#8217;re the first thing I open and read. I always learn something.&#8221;)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Beware_of_so_called_experts\"><\/span><strong>Beware of so called experts<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Of course, there are no &#8216;facts&#8217; regarding most future events, just &#8216;opinions&#8217;,&#8221; and so-called &#8220;Experts \u2014 especially people who are paid to be experts \u2014 often couch their statements as facts, but that doesn&#8217;t mean they&#8217;re sure to come true.&#8221; In short, it&#8217;s not important and knowable!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_modern_media_can_be_questioned\"><\/span><strong>Why modern media can be questioned?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;These days the news media shows little resemblance to what it was 30, 40, or 50 years ago,&#8221; Marks said. &#8220;Many outlets are highly biased to one side or the other and make it possible to read, watch, and listen all day and never be exposed to all aspects of the issues. Thus most people find something to complain about in the media coverage of the 2016 presidential election.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also recommended an article by Ryan Holiday at the Observer published November 16, titled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/observer.com\/2016\/11\/want-to-really-make-america-great-again-stop-reading-the-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Want to Really Make America Great Again? Stop Reading the News<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These words from Marks, five years later, are really true, and the situation has only gotten worse, not better \u2500 \u2500 The terrible thing is that this is the case in all countries around the world, and the advancement of technology progress has made this situation even worse. It is difficult for modern people to distinguish between true and false news. Even what you trust may be second-hand spread, manipulated, or information from unknown sources. At best, everyone has been brainwashed and led to absorb without knowing it. This is also the focus of my previous blog post, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/09\/choose-media-wisely\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Choose Media Wisely<\/a>&#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wall_Street_misses_the_point_not_important_and_knowable_at_all\"><\/span><strong>Wall Street misses the point<\/strong>, not important and knowable at all<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Marks said economists and Wall Street fund managers are concerned with:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>What month will the Fed raise interest rates?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What could go wrong in the economy or the market?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What inning are we in?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And in each country I visit, how&#8217;s the outlook for that country?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>None of these questions can be predicted and answered; and the point is that &#8220;it&#8217;s the surprises no one can anticipate that would move markets most if they were to happen.&#8221; Fundamentally, these are all not important and knowable at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This reminds me of another highly relevant blog post I wrote &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/07\/04\/how-investors-should-look-at-economic-trends-and-forecasts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">How investors should look at economic trends and forecasts?<\/a>&#8220;, I suggest you read it if you are interested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Fishers_view_same_as_Buffetts_important_and_knowable\"><\/span><strong>Fisher&#8217;s view<\/strong>, same as Buffett&#8217;s important and knowable<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ken Fisher had mentioned his father Philip Fisher once warned him, &#8220;Don&#8217;t buy stocks on news, find out who knows the same news, if you&#8217;re not the only one who knows the news, it means that everyone in the world knows about it. then you have no advantage in buying.&#8221; You might think over it, and what we mentioned above on media and wall street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"184\" height=\"102\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/i-1600x1200-1.jpg\" alt=\" important and knowable\" class=\"wp-image-15634\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Related_articles\"><\/span>Related articles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/11\/16\/important-and-knowable-info\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Information investors need should be important and knowable<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/06\/24\/howard-marks-motley-fool\/\">Howard Marks interview with the Motley Fool<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/06\/12\/ignorance\/\">Ignorance is the commonality of mediocre investors<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2025\/06\/06\/seeking-facts\/\">Seeking facts is the first step in investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/06\/10\/game-of-chance\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investing is a game of chance<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/04\/01\/focus-company-performance\/\">Focus on company performance rather than market<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2023\/04\/05\/should-not-trust-forecasts\/\">Investors should not trust forecasts<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/09\/06\/chance-of-making-mistakes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Invest success depends on less chance of making mistakes<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/03\/mistakes-of-omission-and-mistakes-of-commission\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mistakes of omission and mistakes of commission<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/10\/02\/investment-uncertainty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The uncertainty in investment<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/07\/27\/survivorship-bias\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">People believe successful investors are survivorship bias cannot succeed<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/07\/10\/sustained-investor\/\">A investor can be sustained or not? how to verify?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2021\/12\/19\/investing-has-no-formula\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investing has no formulas, but there are ways to invest successfully<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2024\/02\/28\/factor-luck\/\">How big a factor does luck play in investment success?<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/2022\/04\/19\/successful-investors\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The main investment principles of successful investors are similar<\/a>&#8220;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The content of this site is the author\u2019s personal opinions and is for reference only. I am not responsible for the correctness, opinions, and immediacy of the content and information of the article. Readers must make their own judgments.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>I shall not be liable for any damages or other legal liabilities for the direct or indirect losses caused by the readers&#8217; direct or indirect reliance on and reference to the information on this site, or all the responsibilities arising therefrom, as a result of any investment behavior.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Buffett pointed out that &#8220;for a piece of information to be worth pursuing, it should be important and knowable.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[68,383,42,37,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-insight-second-level-thinking","category-howard-marks","category-john-maynard-keynes","category-philip-fisher","category-buffett"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6354"}],"version-history":[{"count":42,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6354\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37105,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6354\/revisions\/37105"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}