{"id":12257,"date":"2022-10-07T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-07T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?p=12257"},"modified":"2025-03-25T17:09:56","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T09:09:56","slug":"%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u986f\u793a\/\u96b1\u85cf\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E5%81%87%E8%AA%AA\" >\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E4%BE%86%E7%94%B1\" >\u4f86\u7531<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%88%E7%90%86%E7%9A%84%E5%89%8D%E6%8F%90\" >\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u524d\u63d0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E4%B8%8D%E5%88%87%E5%AF%A6%E9%9A%9B\" >\u4e0d\u5207\u5be6\u969b<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E9%82%A3%E9%BA%BC%E7%8F%BE%E5%AF%A6%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%91%A2%EF%BC%9F\" >\u90a3\u9ebc\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u5462\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E5%B0%8D%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E5%81%87%E8%AA%AA%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95\" >\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5c0d\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E6%83%B3%E6%B3%95\" >\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60f3\u6cd5<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E5%A4%A7%E9%83%A8%E4%BB%BD%E5%95%86%E5%AD%B8%E9%99%A2%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%AA%B2%E7%A8%8B%E6%B2%92%E7%94%A8\" >\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8ab2\u7a0b\u6c92\u7528<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E6%B7%B1%E5%A5%A7%E4%B8%8D%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8%E6%9C%89%E7%94%A8\" >\u6df1\u5967\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6709\u7528<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E7%B5%90%E8%AA%9E\" >\u7d50\u8a9e<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/#%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\" >\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E5%81%87%E8%AA%AA\"><\/span>\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%BE%86%E7%94%B1\"><\/span>\u4f86\u7531<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\uff08Efficient Market Hypothesis\uff1aEMH\uff09\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u5c24\u91d1\u2027\u6cd5\u99ac\uff08Eugene Fama\uff09\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u8ad6\uff08\u56e0\u6b64\u5f8c\u4f86\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u5c31\u88ab\u5916\u4eba\u7a31\u70ba\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u7684\u5927\u672c\u71df\uff09\u3002\u5927\u610f\u662f\u8aaa\u5982\u679c\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u516c\u958b\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5c31\u7a31\u70ba\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%88%E7%90%86%E7%9A%84%E5%89%8D%E6%8F%90\"><\/span>\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u524d\u63d0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u5047\u8aaa\u4e4d\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u8a31\u591a\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5f88\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6240\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u7acb\u5373\u5f97\u77e5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6703\u7acb\u523b\u505a\u51fa\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u80a1\u50f9\u5df2\u7d93\u53cd\u6620\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u5f9e\u4e2d\u5957\u5229\uff1b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c\u90fd\u6703\u63a5\u8fd1\u65bc\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u76e4\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u9577\u671f\u6253\u6557\u5927\u76e4\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%B8%8D%E5%88%87%E5%AF%A6%E9%9A%9B\"><\/span>\u4e0d\u5207\u5be6\u969b<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u5e7e\u9ede\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u7d93\u9a57\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4e00\u5b9a\u5f88\u96e3\u82df\u540c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u81ea\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u88ab\u8a31\u591a\u4e16\u754c\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u5949\u70ba\u572d\u81ec\uff0c\u81f3\u4ee4\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u8ffd\u96a8\u8005\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u5be6\u969b\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%82%A3%E9%BA%BC%E7%8F%BE%E5%AF%A6%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%91%A2%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u90a3\u9ebc\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u5462\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u771f\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u6295\u8cc7\u5247\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7e3d\u662f\u8655\u7406\u6a5f\u7387\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\uff0c\u8ce0\u7387\u90fd\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8cb7\u5bb6\u548c\u8ce3\u5bb6\u90fd\u57fa\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u81ea\u8a8d\u70ba\u6709\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u4f86\u9032\u884c\u5224\u65b7\u3002\u4f46\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u6709\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u610f\u898b\u5462\uff1f\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8ce3\u5bb6\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u544a\u77e5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u65b0\u9bae\u6216\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u9a57\u8b49\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5373\u4f7f\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u842c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4f60\u4e4b\u524d\u807d\u5230\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u5982\u679c1000\u842c\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u807d\u5230\u5b83\u4e26\u5728\u4f60\u4e4b\u5f8c\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u5b83\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u4f60\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E5%B0%8D%E6%95%88%E7%8E%87%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E5%81%87%E8%AA%AA%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95\"><\/span>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5c0d\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/berkshirehathaway.com\/letters\/1988.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1988\u5e74\u7684\u6ce2\u514b\u590f\u7684\u80a1\u6771\u4fe1<\/a>\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c0d\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u9019\u500b\u8aaa\u6cd5\u9032\u884c\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u539f\u6587\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u300c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5957\u5229\u6d3b\u52d5\u4f7f\u5f97\u6211\u5011\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e00\u4e0b\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u7406\u8ad6\u5728\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u8b8a\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u71b1\u9580\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u5708\u88ab\u5949\u70ba\u8056\u65e8\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5b83\u8a8d\u70ba\u5206\u6790\u80a1\u7968\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6240\u6709\u516c\u958b\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u90fd\u5df2\u7d93\u88ab\u53cd\u61c9\u5728\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u9762\u4e86\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6c38\u9060\u77e5\u9053\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u5b78\u6821\u6559\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u7684\u6559\u6388\u56e0\u6b64\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u63a8\u8ad6\uff0c\u6bd4\u55bb\u8aaa\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u5c04\u98db\u93e2\u96a8\u6a5f\u6240\u9078\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u7d44\u5408\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ab2\u7f8e\uff0c\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u6700\u8070\u660e\u3001\u6700\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u8b49\u5238\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u6240\u9078\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u9a5a\u8a1d\u7684\u662f\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u4e0d\u4f46\u70ba\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u6240\u64c1\u62b1\uff0c\u66f4\u88ab\u8a31\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u5c08\u5bb6\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u6240\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u6b63\u78ba\u5730\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u5e02\u5834\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5177\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u537b\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0b\u4e86\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6c38\u9060\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u9019\u4e2d\u9593\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u7c21\u76f4\u6709\u5929\u58e4\u4e4b\u5225\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u5c31\u6211\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u6211\u500b\u4eba\u904e\u53bb\u5728\u845b\u62c9\u7f55-\u7d10\u66fc\u516c\u53f8\u3001\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5408\u5925\u4f01\u696d\u8207\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u723e\u516c\u53f8\u9023\u7e8c63\u5e74\u7684\u5957\u5229\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u8aaa\u660e\u4e86\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u6709\u591a\u9ebc\u7684\u611a\u8822(\u7576\u7136\u9084\u6709\u5176\u5b83\u4e00\u5806\u8b49\u64da)\uff0c\u7576\u521d\u5728\u845b\u62c9\u7f55-\u7d10\u66fc\u516c\u53f8\u4e0a\u73ed\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5c07\u8a72\u516c\u53f81926\u5e74\u52301956\u5e74\u7684\u5957\u5229\u6210\u679c\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e73\u574720%\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5f9e1956\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6211\u5728\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5408\u5925\u4f01\u696d\u8207\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u723e\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u904b\u7528\u845b\u62c9\u7f55\u7684\u5957\u5229\u539f\u5247\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6211\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u4ed4\u7d30\u5730\u53bb\u7b97\uff0c\u4f461956\u5e74\u52301988\u5e74\u9593\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u4e5f\u6709\u8d85\u904e20%\uff0c(\u7576\u7136\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u74b0\u5883\u6bd4\u8d77\u845b\u62c9\u7f55\u7576\u6642\u8981\u597d\u7684\u8a31\u591a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7576\u6642\u4ed6\u9047\u5230\u904e1929-1932\u5e74\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u5927\u856d\u689d)\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u6240\u6709\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u7686\u4ee5\u5177\u5099\u4f86\u516c\u5e73\u6e2c\u8a66\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u8868\u73fe(1)\u4e09\u500b\u516c\u53f863\u5e74\u4f86\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4e86\u4e0a\u767e\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u8b49\u5238(2)\u7d50\u679c\u61c9\u8a72\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u67d0\u500b\u7279\u5225\u597d\u7684\u500b\u6848\u6240\u626d\u66f2(3)\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6545\u610f\u96b1\u779e\u4e8b\u5be6\u6216\u662f\u5ba3\u63da\u6211\u5011\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u512a\u79c0\u6216\u662f\u7d93\u71df\u8005\u773c\u5149\u7368\u5230\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ea\u662f\u5f9e\u4e8b\u9ad8\u5ea6\u516c\u958b\u7684\u500b\u6848(4)\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5957\u5229\u90e8\u4efd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5c31\u88ab\u8ffd\u67e5\u5230\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u5f8c\u624d\u7279\u5225\u6311\u9078\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u904e\u53bb63\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u5927\u76e4\u6574\u9ad4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c(\u52a0\u8a08\u80a1\u5229)\u5927\u6982\u53ea\u670910%\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u8aaa\u82e5\u7576\u521d\u6295\u51651,000\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u7372\u5f97405,000\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u82e5\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\u6539\u70ba20%\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u537b\u6703\u8b8a\u62109,700\u842c\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u4e0a\u5982\u6b64\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u7570\u4f7f\u5f97\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u7981\u597d\u5947\u7684\u60f3\u8981\u61f7\u7591\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7406\u8ad6\u652f\u6301\u8005\u5f9e\u4f86\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u53bb\u6ce8\u610f\u7406\u8ad6\u8207\u73fe\u5be6\u5982\u6b64\u5730\u4e0d\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u78ba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class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E7%9A%84%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E6%83%B3%E6%B3%95\"><\/span>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60f3\u6cd5<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%A4%A7%E9%83%A8%E4%BB%BD%E5%95%86%E5%AD%B8%E9%99%A2%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%AA%B2%E7%A8%8B%E6%B2%92%E7%94%A8\"><\/span>\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8ab2\u7a0b\u6c92\u7528<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/berkshirehathaway.com\/letters\/1996.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1996\u5e74\u7684\u6ce2\u514b\u590f\u7684\u80a1\u6771\u4fe1<\/a>\u300b\u4e2d\u66fe\u5beb\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u8981\u60f3\u6210\u529f\u5730\u9032\u884c\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u61c2\u5f97\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8c9d\u5b83\u503c\u3001\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u73fe\u4ee3\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7406\u8ad6\u3001\u671f\u6b0a\u5b9a\u50f9\u6216\u662f\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u5927\u5bb6\u6700\u597d\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u6771\u897f\u4e00\u7121\u6240\u77e5\u3002\u7576\u7136\u6211\u7684\u9019\u7a2e\u770b\u6cd5\u8207\u5927\u591a\u6578\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c0\u9ede\u6709\u8457\u6839\u672c\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8ab2\u7a0b\u4e3b\u8981\u5c31\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u6771\u897f\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5b78\u7fd2\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u5011\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u63a5\u53d7\u5169\u9580\u8ab2\u7a0b\u7684\u826f\u597d\u6559\u80b2\u5c31\u8db3\u5920\u4e86\uff0c\u4e00\u9580\u662f\u300e\u5982\u4f55\u8a55\u4f30\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u300f\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u9580\u662f\u300e\u5982\u4f55\u601d\u8003\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u300f\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"146\" height=\"130\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/emh.jpg\" alt=\"\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\" class=\"wp-image-23080\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Credit:seekingalpha<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%B7%B1%E5%A5%A7%E4%B8%8D%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8%E6%9C%89%E7%94%A8\"><\/span>\u6df1\u5967\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6709\u7528<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e00\u5982\u4ed6\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/berkshirehathaway.com\/letters\/1987.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1987\u5e74\u7684\u6ce2\u514b\u590f\u7684\u80a1\u6771\u4fe1<\/a>\u300b\u4e2d\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\uff1a\u300c\u845b\u62c9\u6f22\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u7406\u8ad6\u5728\u73fe\u4eca\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4e16\u754c\u5167\u6216\u8a31\u986f\u5f97\u6709\u4e9b\u904e\u6642\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u5927\u8ac7\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u3001\u52d5\u614b\u907f\u96aa\u3001\u8207\u8c9d\u5b83\u503c\u7684\u5c08\u5bb6\u5b78\u8005\u773c\u4e2d\u66f4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6703\u5c0d\u90a3\u4e9b\u6df1\u5967\u7684\u8ab2\u984c\u611f\u5230\u8208\u8da3\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u5c0d\u65bc\u6e34\u671b\u6295\u8cc7\u5efa\u8b70\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u91ab\u53ef\u4ee5\u55ae\u9760 \u300e\u5403\u5169\u9846\u963f\u65af\u5339\u5be7\u300f\u9019\u985e\u7c21\u55ae\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\u6210\u540d\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%B5%90%E8%AA%9E\"><\/span>\u7d50\u8a9e<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u6703\u662f\u5728\u8857\u4e0a\u4e5e\u8a0e\u7684\u6d41\u6d6a\u6f22\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\"><\/span>\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/12\/26\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%b8%8d%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e6%b7%b1%e5%a5%a7%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%b8\/\">\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u5967\u7684\u6578\u5b78<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/13\/%e7%8f%be%e4%bb%a3%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%b5%84%e5%90%88%e7%90%86%e8%ab%96%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e4%b8%8d%e5%90%88%e7%90%86%ef%bc%9f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u73fe\u4ee3\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7406\u8ad6\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/10\/07\/%e6%95%88%e7%8e%87%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/15\/%e7%be%a4%e7%9c%be%e5%ae%b9%e6%98%93%e5%96%aa%e5%a4%b1%e5%88%a4%e6%96%b7%e5%8a%9b%e5%92%8c%e8%bf%b7%e5%a4%b1\/\">\u7fa4\u773e\u5bb9\u6613\u55aa\u5931\u5224\u65b7\u529b\u548c\u8ff7\u5931<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/30\/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BA%BA%E5%BF%85%E8%AE%80%E7%9A%84%E6%BC%AB%E6%AD%A5%E8%8F%AF%E7%88%BE%E8%A1%97\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7f8e\u80a1\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5fc5\u8b80\u7684\u300a\u6f2b\u6b65\u83ef\u723e\u8857\uff08A Random Walk Down Wall Street\uff09<\/a>\u300b\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/09\/12\/%e6%82%a8%e6%87%89%e8%a9%b2%e8%aa%8d%e8%ad%98square%e9%80%99%e5%ae%b6%e4%bc%81%e6%a5%ad\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/04\/07\/%e7%82%ba%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e5%80%bc%e5%be%97%e6%b7%b1%e5%85%a5%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u503c\u5f97\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/07\/27\/%E7%9B%B8%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BA%BA%E6%98%AF%E5%80%96%E5%AD%98%E8%80%85%E5%81%8F%E8%AA%A4%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u76f8\u4fe1\u6210\u529f\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u662f\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u529f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/08\/10\/%E9%96%B1%E8%AE%80%E5%B0%8D%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E7%9A%84%E5%BF%85%E8%A6%81%E6%80%A7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u95b1\u8b80\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u7121\u53ef\u53d6\u4ee3\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/01\/12\/%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%B8%AB%E7%9A%84%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E9%83%BD%E4%B8%80%E7%84%A1%E6%98%AF%E8%99%95%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u7684\u5831\u544a\u90fd\u4e00\u7121\u662f\u8655\u55ce\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/04\/27\/%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6301\u80a1\u76843\u5927\u5171\u540c\u6027-\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3001\u56fa\u5b9a\u914d\u606f\u3001\u5eab\u85cf\u80a1<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>\u91cd\u8981\u8072\u660e<\/em> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u672c\u7ad9\u5167\u5bb9\u70ba\u4f5c\u8005\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u50c5\u4f9b\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u4e0d\u5c0d\u6587\u7ae0\u5167\u5bb9\u3001\u8cc7\u6599\u4e4b\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u3001\u770b\u6cd5\u3001\u8207\u5373\u6642\u6027\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u8acb\u52d9\u5fc5\u81ea\u884c\u5224\u65b7\u3002<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>\u5c0d\u65bc\u8b80\u8005\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e26\u53c3\u8003\u672c\u7ad9\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8cc7\u884c\u70ba\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e4b\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u6216\u56e0\u6b64\u7522\u751f\u4e4b\u4e00\u5207\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u5747\u4e0d\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u640d\u5bb3\u8ce0\u511f\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u4e4b\u8cac\u4efb\u3002<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\uff08Efficient Market Hypothesis\uff1aEMH\uff09\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u5c24\u91d1\u2027\u6cd5\u99ac\uff08Eugene Fama\uff09\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u8ad6<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23080,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98,251,158],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buffett","category-stock-knowledge","category-concept"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12257\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}