{"id":49805,"date":"2024-06-27T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?p=49805"},"modified":"2026-03-03T13:30:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T05:30:34","slug":"%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8861\u91cf\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u904e\u71b1\u5177\u8aaa\u670d\u529b\u7684\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\uff08Buffett indicator\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u986f\u793a\/\u96b1\u85cf\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E5%87%BA%E8%99%95\" >\u51fa\u8655<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E5%AE%9A%E7%BE%A9\" >\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E7%B5%A6%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E5%BC%95\" >\u7d66\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u6307\u5f15<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#1950%E8%87%B32022%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96\" >1950\u81f32022\u7684\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u8da8\u52e2\u5716<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%EF%BC%9F\" >\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u5982\u4f55\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E6%87%89%E7%94%A8%E5%AF%A6%E4%BE%8B\" >\u61c9\u7528\u5be6\u4f8b<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E7%95%B6%E6%99%82%E5%8F%97%E8%A8%AA%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E6%96%87\" >\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7576\u6642\u53d7\u8a2a\u7684\u539f\u6587<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3%E4%B9%8B%E8%99%95\" >\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u8655<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E5%91%A2%EF%BC%9F\" >\u76ee\u524d\u5462\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\" >\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%87%BA%E8%99%95\"><\/span>\u51fa\u8655<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Buffett_indicator#:~:text=9%20External%20links-,History,percentage%20of%20%22US%20GNP%22.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\uff08Buffett indicator\uff09<\/a>\u300d\u662f\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u65bc2001\u5e7412\u6708\u5728\u8ca1\u661f\u96dc\u8a8c\uff08Fortune\uff09\u53d7\u8a2a\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/money.cnn.com\/magazines\/fortune\/fortune_archive\/2001\/12\/10\/314691\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u83ef\u502b\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8ac7\u80a1\u5e02\uff08Warren Buffett On The Stock Market\uff09<\/a>\u300b\u9996\u5ea6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u6587\u6700\u672b\u520a\u767b\u4e86\u4ed6\u7576\u6642\u53d7\u8a2a\u7684\u539f\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%AE%9A%E7%BE%A9\"><\/span>\u5b9a\u7fa9<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u70ba\u80a1\u5e02\u7e3d\u5e02\u503c\u9664\u4ee5\u570b\u6c11\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff08GNP\uff09\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GNP\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u4e00\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u503c\u7684\u300c\u7e3d\u91cf\u300d\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u7d66\u4e88\u5168\u9ad4\u4f01\u696d\u7372\u5229\u7684\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8a72\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u9060\u9060\u8d85\u904e\u8a72\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e3d\u7522\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u898b\u9ad8\u9ede\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u56e0\u5404\u570b\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d(GDP)\u901a\u5e38\u8207GNP\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8a08\u7b97\u6642\u591a\u534a\u4ee5GDP\u53d6\u4ee3GNP\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%B5%A6%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E5%BC%95\"><\/span>\u7d66\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u6307\u5f15<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u82e5\u5c0f\u65bc50%\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u80a1\u5e02\u56b4\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u572850%\u81f375%\u4e4b\u9593\u70ba\u7565\u5fae\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c75%\u81f390%\u4e4b\u9593\u70ba\u50f9\u503c\u5408\u7406\uff0c90%\u81f3115%\u4e4b\u9593\u70ba\u7565\u5fae\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc115%\u5247\u662f\u56b4\u91cd\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1950%E8%87%B32022%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96\"><\/span>1950\u81f32022\u7684\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u8da8\u52e2\u5716<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"440\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a191950-2022-Phone.jpg\" alt=\"\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\" class=\"wp-image-49816\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a191950-2022-Phone.jpg 440w, https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a191950-2022-Phone-300x218.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 440px) 85vw, 440px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: advisorperspectives.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u5982\u4f55\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a191970\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7d040.95\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%87%89%E7%94%A8%E5%AF%A6%E4%BE%8B\"><\/span>\u61c9\u7528\u5be6\u4f8b<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b63\u56e0\u70ba\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u61c9\u7528\u6b64\u9805\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u8a72\u6307\u6a19\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u76f8\u7576\u53ef\u9760\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7121\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\u6975\u5ea6\u9ad8\u4f30\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u6e96\u78ba\u9810\u793a\u4e861987\u5e74\u3001\u907f\u958b2000\u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u80a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u30012008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7b49\u5169\u6b21\u7f8e\u80a1\u5927\u5d29\u76e4\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u300c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u591a\u7a7a\u98a8\u5411\u7403\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u9ad8\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E7%95%B6%E6%99%82%E5%8F%97%E8%A8%AA%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E6%96%87\"><\/span>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7576\u6642\u53d7\u8a2a\u7684\u539f\u6587<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u4e00\u5f35\u5716\u8868\uff0c\u59cb\u65bc\u8fd1 80 \u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u5176\u5167\u5bb9\u975e\u5e38\u57fa\u790e\u3002\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u8868\u986f\u793a\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u516c\u958b\u4ea4\u6613\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4f54\u8a72\u570b\u696d\u52d9\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff0c\u5373\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u5728\u544a\u8a34\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u7279\u5b9a\u6642\u523b\u4f30\u503c\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u55ae\u4e00\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u60a8\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u8fd1\u5169\u5e74\u524d\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e86\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u9019\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u5f37\u70c8\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u4fe1\u865f\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u70ba\u4e86\u8b93\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4ee5\u8d85\u904e\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u9577\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u7372\u5f97\u8ca1\u5bcc\uff0c\u5716\u8868\u4e0a\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u95dc\u4fc2\u7dda\u5fc5\u9808\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5982\u679c GNP \u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u9577 5%\uff0c\u800c\u60a8\u5e0c\u671b\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u503c\u4e0a\u6f32 10%\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u8b93\u9019\u689d\u7dda\u76f4\u63a5\u5f9e\u5716\u8868\u9802\u90e8\u5ef6\u4f38\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u90a3\u4e0d\u6703\u767c\u751f\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u5c0d\u6211\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8a72\u5716\u8868\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u95dc\u4fc2\u8dcc\u81f3 70% \u6216 80% \u5340\u57df\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u8cfc\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u60a8\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u5229\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1 200%\uff08\u5982 1999 \u5e74\u548c 2000 \u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u60a8\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u73a9\u706b\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u60a8\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u8a72\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6700\u8fd1\u70ba 133%\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%B8%8D%E8%B6%B3%E4%B9%8B%E8%99%95\"><\/span>\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u8655<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u4e5f\u6709\u5176\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\u662f\u5b83\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u76ee\u524d\u5229\u7387\u8655\u65bc20\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 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class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E5%91%A2%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u76ee\u524d\u5462\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e03\u6708\u521d\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0a\u5347\u5230200%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u9054\u5230\u4e86\u81ea2022\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6839\u64daFactSet\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4e0a\u6b21\u9019\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u9810\u793a\u8457\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u81ea2008\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\"><\/span>\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/\">\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19\u70ba\u4f55\u6bd4\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u66f4\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/20\/%e4%b8%80%e4%ba%9b%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e5%b0%8d%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%92%8c%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e8%b5%b0%e5%90%91%e5%88%a4%e8%ae%80%e6%9c%83%e6%9c%89%e5%8a%a9%e7%9b%8a\/\">\u4e00\u4e9b\u6307\u6a19\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u666f\u6c23\u8d70\u5411\u5224\u8b80\u6703\u6709\u52a9\u76ca<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/07\/20\/%e8%81%af%e9%82%a6%e5%bf%ab%e9%81%9e%e5%b0%8d%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e7%9b%b4%e6%8e%a5%e7%9b%b8%e9%97%9c%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e8%82%a1\/\"> <\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/04\/27\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%9e%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e7%9a%84%e7%a5%9e%e8%ab%ad\/\">\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u8ff0\u66f8\u7c4d\u300a\u80a1\u795e\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u795e\u8aed\uff08Tap Dancing to Work\uff09\u300b<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/07\/20\/%e8%81%af%e9%82%a6%e5%bf%ab%e9%81%9e%e5%b0%8d%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e7%9b%b4%e6%8e%a5%e7%9b%b8%e9%97%9c%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e8%82%a1\/\">\u806f\u90a6\u5feb\u905e\uff08Fedex\uff09\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u80a1\u5982\u4f55\u8cfa\u9322\uff1f\u70ba\u4f55\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u4e0b\u5761\uff1f <\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/29\/%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%94%B1%E4%BC%81%E6%A5%AD%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E6%89%BE%E5%87%BA%E5%A5%BD%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%EF%BC%8C%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E9%81%8E%E7%86%B1%E6%99%82%E7%9A%84%E4%BD%9C%E6%B3%95\/\">\u5982\u4f55\u7531\u4f01\u696d\u6587\u5316\u627e\u51fa\u597d\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u904e\u71b1\u6642\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8f03\u4f73\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/\">\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u6307\u6a19<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/03\/%E6%A5%B5%E5%85%B6%E6%BA%96%E7%A2%BA%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E8%96%A9%E5%A7%86%E8%A6%8F%E5%89%87%EF%BC%88sahm-rule%EF%BC%89\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6e96\u78ba\u7387\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u767e\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6307\u6a19\u85a9\u59c6\u898f\u5247\uff08Sahm Rule\uff09<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/07\/%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e5%ad%a3%e8%b2%a1%e5%a0%b1%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e5%bc%95%e7%99%bc%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%8b%e8%b7%8c%ef%bc%9f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2024\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u8ca1\u5831\u5f8c\u70ba\u4f55\u5f15\u767c\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8861\u91cf\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u904e\u71b1\u5177\u8aaa\u670d\u529b\u7684\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\uff08Buffett indicator\uff09<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2023\/06\/26\/%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%a7%e7%94%9f%e7%94%a2%e7%b8%bd%e5%80%bc%ef%bc%88gdp%ef%bc%89%e5%92%8c%e8%82%a1%e5%83%b9%e7%9a%84%e9%97%9c%e4%bf%82\/\">\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u548c\u80a1\u50f9\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/09\/29\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%ad%b7%e5%b9%b4%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%a7%e7%94%9f%e7%94%a2%e7%b8%bd%e5%80%bcgdp%e6%9f%a5%e8%a9%a2%e5%99%a8\/\">\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503cGDP\u67e5\u8a62\u5668<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/09\/29\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%85%a9%e5%a4%a7%e6%ae%ba%e6%89%8b%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e5%92%8c%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87\/\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u6bba\u624b\uff1a\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u548c\u7a05\u8ce6<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/09\/05\/%e5%96%ae%e5%88%a9%e5%92%8c%e8%a4%87%e5%88%a9%e8%a8%88%e7%ae%97%e5%99%a8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u55ae\u5229\u548c\u8907\u5229\u8a08\u7b97\u5668<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/08\/31\/%e5%b9%b4%e5%8c%96%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%a0%b1%e9%85%ac%e7%8e%87%e8%a8%88%e7%ae%97%e5%99%a8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5e74\u5316\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff08IRR\uff09\u8a08\u7b97\u5668<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/behind-the-scenes\/homework\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e8%a8%88%e7%ae%97%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%a0%b1%e9%85%ac%e7%8e%87%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u300a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u61c9\u91cd\u8996\u7684\u662f\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7387\u300b<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>\u91cd\u8981\u8072\u660e<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u672c\u7ad9\u5167\u5bb9\u70ba\u4f5c\u8005\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u50c5\u4f9b\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u4e0d\u5c0d\u6587\u7ae0\u5167\u5bb9\u3001\u8cc7\u6599\u4e4b\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u3001\u770b\u6cd5\u3001\u8207\u5373\u6642\u6027\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u8acb\u52d9\u5fc5\u81ea\u884c\u5224\u65b7\u3002<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>\u5c0d\u65bc\u8b80\u8005\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e26\u53c3\u8003\u672c\u7ad9\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8cc7\u884c\u70ba\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e4b\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u6216\u56e0\u6b64\u7522\u751f\u4e4b\u4e00\u5207\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u5747\u4e0d\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u640d\u5bb3\u8ce0\u511f\u53ca<em>\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u4e4b\u8cac\u4efb\u3002<\/em><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u300c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u82e5\u5c0f\u65bc50%\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u80a1\u5e02\u56b4\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u572850%\u81f375%\u4e4b\u9593\u70ba\u7565\u5fae\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c75%\u81f390%\u4e4b\u9593\u70ba\u50f9\u503c\u5408\u7406\uff0c90%\u81f3115%\u4e4b\u9593\u70ba\u7565\u5fae\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc115%\u5247\u662f\u56b4\u91cd\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49816,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1450,98,1767,1768],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-indicator","category-buffett","category-bear-market","category-bull-market"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49805"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49805\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74692,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49805\/revisions\/74692"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}