{"id":54794,"date":"2024-08-13T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-13T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?p=54794"},"modified":"2025-09-18T10:22:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T02:22:32","slug":"%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0a\u6f32\u55ce\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_83 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u986f\u793a\/\u96b1\u85cf\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A\" >\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#TS_Lombard%E7%9A%84%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A\" >TS Lombard\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E5%AF%8C%E5%9C%8B%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%89%80%EF%BC%88WFII%EF%BC%89\" >\u5bcc\u570b\u9280\u884c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08WFII\uff09<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E5%BE%B7%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%97%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C\" >\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u9280\u884c<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#Strategas_Securities\" >Strategas Securities<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E8%81%AF%E6%BA%96%E6%9C%83%E5%BE%88%E7%82%BA%E9%9B%A3\" >\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5f88\u70ba\u96e3<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E6%99%82%E9%96%93%E6%8B%BF%E6%8D%8F%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%93\" >\u6642\u9593\u62ff\u634f\u4e0d\u6613<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80%E5%B0%8E%E8%87%B4%E4%BC%81%E6%A5%AD%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%88%E9%A4%98%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C\" >\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5c0e\u81f4\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E6%9C%83%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%BF%E4%BC%81%E6%A5%AD%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9\" >\u5229\u7387\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u5229<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E7%B5%90%E8%AB%96\" >\u7d50\u8ad6<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/#%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\" >\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A\"><\/span>\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"TS_Lombard%E7%9A%84%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A\"><\/span>TS Lombard\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>TS Lombard\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u5168\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u5426\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u57282024\u5e748\u67089\u65e5\u7d66\u5ba2\u6236\u7684\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u5beb\u9053\uff0c\u300c\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u70ba\u56e0\u61c9\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u5411\u8870\u9000\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u70ba\u4e86\u5f37\u8abf\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0cTS Lombard\u7684\u5718\u968a\u8ffd\u8e64\u4e86 1984 \u5e74\u81f3 2019 \u5e74\u9593\uff08\u5982\u4e0b\u57161\uff09\uff0c\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff1a\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u7684\u5e7e\u65e5\u5167\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5e73\u5747\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u7684\u5e7e\u5468\u5167\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e5f\u958b\u59cb\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"760\" height=\"627\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/TS-Lombard.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54807\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/TS-Lombard.jpg 760w, https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/TS-Lombard-300x248.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u57161 \u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aOECD\u3001\u5f6d\u535a\u3001TS Lombard<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c0d\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u7684\u524d\u666f\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f97\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u901a\u5e38\u624d\u6703\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u4e0a\u63da\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%AF%8C%E5%9C%8B%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%89%80%EF%BC%88WFII%EF%BC%89\"><\/span>\u5bcc\u570b\u9280\u884c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08WFII\uff09<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>WFII\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u5206\u6790\u5e2bAustin Pickle\u57282024\u5e746\u670818\u65e5\u7684\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u7e6a\u88fd\u4e86\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u7684\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u9031\u671f\u5167\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u81f3\u96a8\u5f8c\u8a72\u6307\u6578\u4f4e\u9ede\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5929\u6578\uff08\u5982\u57162\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"608\" height=\"340\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/wfc.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54811\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/wfc.jpg 608w, https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/wfc-300x168.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u57162: \u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u5728\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u7684\u7684\u56de\u5831\u7387\u53ca\u5728\u6307\u6578\u4f4e\u9ede\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5929\u6578<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u81ea1974\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5728\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u7684250\u5929\u5167\uff0c\u8a72\u6307\u6578\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8dcc\u5e45\u7d04\u70ba20%\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e0d\u61c9\u5c07\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u80a1\u5e02\u89e3\u9664\u6212\u5099\u7684\u4fe1\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%BE%B7%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%97%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C\"><\/span>\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u9280\u884c<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5fb7\u9280\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8ffd\u8e64\u4e861955\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u964d\u606f\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d10\u6b21\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4f34\u751f\u3002\u5c11\u6578\u7684\u5169\u6b21\u4f8b\u5916\u5206\u5225\u767c\u751f\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0060\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u548c\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u9280\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2bJim Reid\u57282024\u5e7401\u670815\u65e5\u7684\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u5beb\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u57281\u5e74\u5167\u964d\u606f\u8d85150\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u82e5\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6c92\u6709\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u5148\u4f8b\u986f\u793a\u572812\u500b\u6708\u5167\u964d\u606f150\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7684\u9580\u6abb\u662f\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Strategas_Securities\"><\/span>Strategas Securities<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64daStrategas Securities\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5728\u5148\u524d\u6b77\u53f2\u76848\u500b\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u7dca\u7e2e\u9031\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u5728\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6b21\u5347\u606f\u5f8c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e0a\u6f3213%\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u57163\u3002\uff08\u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7d04\u70ba10%\uff01\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"382\" height=\"185\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OneYearReturn-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54832\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OneYearReturn-Custom.jpg 382w, https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OneYearReturn-Custom-300x145.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 382px) 85vw, 382px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u57163: \u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u5728\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6b21\u5347\u606f\u5f8c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e0a\u6f32\u7387<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E8%81%AF%E6%BA%96%E6%9C%83%E5%BE%88%E7%82%BA%E9%9B%A3\"><\/span>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5f88\u70ba\u96e3<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%99%82%E9%96%93%E6%8B%BF%E6%8D%8F%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%93\"><\/span>\u6642\u9593\u62ff\u634f\u4e0d\u6613<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u5be6\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u2f00\u76f4\u5728\u7814\u7a761970\u5e74\u4ee3\u767c\u2f63\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u904e\u65e9\u653e\u9b06\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u81f4\u4f7f\u901a\u81a8\u8fc5\u901f\u5fa9\u71c3\u3002\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6642\u9593\u62ff\u634f\u4e26\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u7a0d\u4e00\u4e0d\u614e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u8e481970\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u60b2\u5287\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80%E5%B0%8E%E8%87%B4%E4%BC%81%E6%A5%AD%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%88%E9%A4%98%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C\"><\/span>\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5c0e\u81f4\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u4e0b\u8dcc<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/data\/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u671f\u9593<\/a>\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u6703\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u5730\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5982\u57164\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"320\" height=\"189\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6b77\u53f21957-2020-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54836\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6b77\u53f21957-2020-Custom.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6b77\u53f21957-2020-Custom-300x177.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 320px) 85vw, 320px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u57164: \u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u671f\u9593\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c0d\u7167\u8868<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E6%9C%83%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%BF%E4%BC%81%E6%A5%AD%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9\"><\/span>\u5229\u7387\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u5229<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u5e2bAndrew Lapthorne\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u5229\u6f64\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u300d\uff0c\u5982\u57165\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"423\" height=\"228\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Rate_EPS-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54825\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Rate_EPS-Custom.jpg 423w, https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Rate_EPS-Custom-300x162.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 423px) 85vw, 423px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u57165: \u5229\u7387\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u9918\u8da8\u52e2\u5c0d\u7167\u5716<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%B5%90%E8%AB%96\"><\/span>\u7d50\u8ad6<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6e1b\u5c11\uff1b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u7576\u7136\u6703\u96a8\u4e4b\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e5f\u6703\u88ab\u8feb\u964d\u606f\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u666f\u6c23\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u975e\u7acb\u5373\u80fd\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u63d0\u6607\u767c\u751f\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7e3d\u4e4b\uff0c\u300c\u964d\u606f\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a100%\u6703\u8b93\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"178\" height=\"100\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/rate_market-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"\u964d\u606f\" class=\"wp-image-54796\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: Ideogram<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\"><\/span>\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%E8%81%AF%E6%BA%96%E6%9C%83%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%8A%E6%BC%B2%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0a\u6f32\u55ce\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2023\/08\/11\/%e6%83%a0%e8%ad%bd%e4%b8%8b%e8%aa%bf%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e4%bf%a1%e7%94%a8%e8%a9%95%e7%b4%9a%e7%9a%84%e7%90%86%e7%94%b1%e5%92%8c%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf\/\">\u60e0\u8b7d\u4e0b\u8abf\u7f8e\u570b\u4fe1\u7528\u8a55\u7d1a\u7684\u7406\u7531\u548c\u5f71\u97ff<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/07\/20\/%e8%81%af%e9%82%a6%e5%bf%ab%e9%81%9e%e5%b0%8d%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e7%9b%b4%e6%8e%a5%e7%9b%b8%e9%97%9c%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e8%82%a1\/\">\u806f\u90a6\u5feb\u905e\uff08Fedex\uff09\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u80a1\u5982\u4f55\u8cfa\u9322\uff1f\u70ba\u4f55\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u4e0b\u5761\uff1f <\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/09\/29\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%85%a9%e5%a4%a7%e6%ae%ba%e6%89%8b%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e5%92%8c%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87\/\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u6bba\u624b\uff1a\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u548c\u7a05\u8ce6<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2023\/03\/14\/%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e8%82%a1%e5%83%b9%e6%9c%83%e9%9a%a8%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e8%87%aa%e5%8b%95%e4%b8%8a%e8%aa%bf%ef%bc%9f\/\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2023\/03\/14\/%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e8%82%a1%e5%83%b9%e6%9c%83%e9%9a%a8%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e8%87%aa%e5%8b%95%e4%b8%8a%e8%aa%bf%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u70ba\u4f55\u80a1\u50f9\u6703\u96a8\u901a\u81a8\u81ea\u52d5\u4e0a\u8abf\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/09\/19\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%ad%b7%e5%b9%b4%e9%80%9a%e8%b2%a8%e8%86%a8%e8%84%b9%e7%8e%87%e6%9f%a5%e8%a9%a2\/\">\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u5e74\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u67e5\u8a62\u5668<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2023\/06\/12\/%e9%80%9a%e8%b2%a8%e8%86%a8%e8%84%b9%e7%92%b0%e5%a2%83%e4%b8%8b%e8%bc%83%e9%81%a9%e5%90%88%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%9a%84%e4%bc%81%e6%a5%ad\/\">\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u8f03\u9069\u5408\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4f01\u696d<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/12\/27\/%e9%99%8d%e4%bd%8e%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e6%b3%95%e6%a1%88%e5%b0%8d%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e7%9a%84%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf\/\">\u300a\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u81a8\u6cd5\u6848\u5c0d\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/a><span style=\"font-size: revert;\">\u300b<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2023\/06\/26\/%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%a7%e7%94%9f%e7%94%a2%e7%b8%bd%e5%80%bc%ef%bc%88gdp%ef%bc%89%e5%92%8c%e8%82%a1%e5%83%b9%e7%9a%84%e9%97%9c%e4%bf%82\/\">\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u548c\u80a1\u50f9\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/09\/29\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%ad%b7%e5%b9%b4%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%a7%e7%94%9f%e7%94%a2%e7%b8%bd%e5%80%bcgdp%e6%9f%a5%e8%a9%a2%e5%99%a8\/\">\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503cGDP\u67e5\u8a62\u5668<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/07\/04\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e7%9c%8b%e5%be%85%e7%b8%bd%e9%ab%94%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e8%b5%b0%e5%8b%a2%e5%92%8c%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u52e2\u548c\u9810\u6e2c\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>\u91cd\u8981\u8072\u660e<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul 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