{"id":59337,"date":"2025-02-20T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?p=59337"},"modified":"2025-11-19T10:58:43","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T02:58:43","slug":"%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e6%9c%83%e9%a8%99%e4%ba%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/02\/20\/%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e6%9c%83%e9%a8%99%e4%ba%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7d71\u8a08\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u9a19\u4eba"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u986f\u793a\/\u96b1\u85cf\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/02\/20\/%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e6%9c%83%e9%a8%99%e4%ba%ba\/#%E5%85%88%E5%8A%83%E9%9D%B6%E5%BE%8C%E5%B0%84%E7%AE%AD\" >\u5148\u5283\u9776\u5f8c\u5c04\u7bad<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/02\/20\/%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e6%9c%83%e9%a8%99%e4%ba%ba\/#%E5%A4%A7%E5%B8%AB%E5%80%91%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95\" >\u5927\u5e2b\u5011\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/02\/20\/%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e6%9c%83%e9%a8%99%e4%ba%ba\/#%E6%88%91%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E5%BE%97%E5%88%B0%E6%88%91%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C\" >\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u6211\u8981\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u7d50\u679c<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/02\/20\/%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e6%9c%83%e9%a8%99%e4%ba%ba\/#%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\" >\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%85%88%E5%8A%83%E9%9D%B6%E5%BE%8C%E5%B0%84%E7%AE%AD\"><\/span>\u5148\u5283\u9776\u5f8c\u5c04\u7bad<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c0d\u7d71\u8a08\u3001\u5e02\u8abf\u3001\u6216\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u90fd\u66b8\u89e3\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u548c\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8a2d\u8a08\uff0c\u8a62\u554f\u65b9\u5f0f\u6216\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u8cc7\u6599\u89e3\u8b80\u662f\u6709\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u7d44\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u5929\u5357\u5730\u5317\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u9019\u6a23\uff1f\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u591a\uff1a\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0d\u5920\u5c08\u696d\u3001\u6a23\u672c\u6578\u3001\u504f\u898b\u3001\u8aa4\u5dee\u3001\u5148\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u5148\u5283\u9776\u5f8c\u5c04\u7bad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u6539\u8b8a\u7d71\u8a08\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5148\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u5148\u5283\u9776\u5f8c\u5c04\u7bad\u300d\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u56e0\u70ba<strong>\u7d71\u8a08\u548c\u5e02\u8abf\u5c6c\u65bc\u4eba\u6587\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u9818\u57df\u8981\u591a\u4e00\u9ede<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e2d\u9593\u6703\u727d\u6d89\u5230\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u548c\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u53ea\u662f\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u5831\u544a\u548c\u89e3\u8b80\u7684\u662f\u4eba\uff1b\u53ea\u8981\u662f\u4eba\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u6709\u504f\u898b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%A4%A7%E5%B8%AB%E5%80%91%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%8B%E6%B3%95\"><\/span>\u5927\u5e2b\u5011\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: revert;\">\u67e5\u7406\uff0e\u8499\u683c\u5c31\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\u8aaa\u4e86\u4e00\u53e5\u767c\u751f\u6df1\u7701\u7684\u8a55\u8a9e\u300c\u624b\u88e1\u62ff\u8457\u939a\u5b50\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u6771\u897f\u90fd\u89ba\u5f97\u662f\u91d8\u5b50\u3002\u300d<\/span> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: revert;\">\u99ac\u514b\u00b7\u5410\u6e29\u8aaa\u904e\u4e00\u53e5\u9817\u4ee4\u4eba\u73a9\u5473\u7684\u540d\u8a00\uff1a\u300c\u8b0a\u8a00\u6709\u4e09\u7a2e\uff1a\u8b0a\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u60e1\u7684\u8b0a\u8a00\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d71\u8a08\u3002\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: revert;\">\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u8aaa\u904e\uff1a\u300c\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u767c\u73fe\u901a\u5e38\u4e00\u822c<\/span>\u898b<span style=\"font-size: revert;\">\u8b58\uff08sense\uff09\u6bd4\u7d71\u8a08\u66f4\u660e\u667a\uff01\u300d<\/span> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%88%91%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E5%BE%97%E5%88%B0%E6%88%91%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C\"><\/span><strong>\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u6211\u8981\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u7d50\u679c<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5728\u6211\u7684\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.books.com.tw\/products\/0010889106?sloc=main\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d85\u7d1a\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u6295\u8cc7\u6cd5\u5247<\/a>\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d5-2\u7bc0\uff0c\u7b2c361\u9801\u66fe\u5f15\u7528\u845b\u62c9\u6f22\u8aaa\u904e\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8a71\uff1a\u300c\u7d50\u5408\u7cbe\u6e96\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u8207\u7cbe\u78ba\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7522\u751f\u4efb\u4f55\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u70ba\u4f60\u627e\u51fa\u67d0\u7a2e\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u6108\u6df1\u5967\u3001\u6108\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u5c07\u6703\u6108\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3001\u6108\u5192\u96aa\u3002\u300d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5728\u672c\u90e8\u843d\u683c\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u904e\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/08\/%e9%9d%9e%e9%87%8f%e5%8c%96%e5%9b%a0%e7%b4%a0%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e6%b1%ba%e5%ae%9a%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%9a%84%e6%88%90%e6%95%97\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u6557\u7684\u662f\u975e\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u7d20<\/a>\u300b\u5c31\u8a0e\u8ad6\u904e\u9019\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u7e3d\u4e4b\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u5f97\u5230\u6211\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a2d\u8a08\u51fa\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u6700\u5f8c\u671f\u671b\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u518d\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u9032\u884c\u5305\u88dd\uff0c\u767c\u4f48\u6642\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u6b64\u589e\u52a0\u8aaa\u670d\u529b\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u6211\u5011 \u7684\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9078\u8209\u3001\u5546\u5834\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u83ef\u723e\u8857\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u5728\u904b\u7528\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u4eba\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u767c\u89ba\u7f77\u4e86\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"213\" height=\"120\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/statistics.jpg\" alt=\"\u7d71\u8a08\" class=\"wp-image-59433\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nccu.edu.tw\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nccu.edu.tw<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\"><\/span>\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/05\/27\/%E7%95%B0%E9%A1%9Eoutliers10000%E5%80%8B%E5%B0%8F%E6%99%82%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88%E6%9C%83%E9%A8%99%E4%BA%BA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7570\u6578\uff08Outliers\uff09\u201410000\u500b\u5c0f\u6642\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u6703\u9a19\u4eba<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/11\/18\/%e5%a6%82%e6%9e%9c%e4%b8%8d%e9%81%a9%e5%90%88%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%8a%aa%e5%8a%9b%e4%b9%9f%e4%b8%8d%e6%9c%83%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f\/\">\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u52aa\u529b\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u6210\u529f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/02\/20\/%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e6%9c%83%e9%a8%99%e4%ba%ba\/\">\u7d71\u8a08\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u9a19\u4eba<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/03\/22\/%e8%ab%87%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%a0%b1%e9%85%ac%e7%8e%87%ef%bc%8c%e5%b0%8f%e5%bf%83%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%97%e9%81%8a%e6%88%b2\/\">\u8ac7\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff0c\u5c0f\u5fc3\u6578\u5b57\u9677\u9631<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>\u91cd\u8981\u8072\u660e<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u672c\u7ad9\u5167\u5bb9\u70ba\u4f5c\u8005\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u50c5\u4f9b\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u4e0d\u5c0d\u6587\u7ae0\u5167\u5bb9\u3001\u8cc7\u6599\u4e4b\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u3001\u770b\u6cd5\u3001\u8207\u5373\u6642\u6027\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u8acb\u52d9\u5fc5\u81ea\u884c\u5224\u65b7\u3002<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>\u5c0d\u65bc\u8b80\u8005\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e26\u53c3\u8003\u672c\u7ad9\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8cc7\u884c\u70ba\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e4b\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u6216\u56e0\u6b64\u7522\u751f\u4e4b\u4e00\u5207\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u5747\u4e0d\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u640d\u5bb3\u8ce0\u511f\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u4e4b\u8cac\u4efb\u3002<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u6539\u8b8a\u7d71\u8a08\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5148\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u5148\u5283\u9776\u5f8c\u5c04\u7bad\u300d\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u56e0\u70ba\u7d71\u8a08\u548c\u5e02\u8abf\u5c6c\u65bc\u4eba\u6587\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u9818\u57df\u8981\u591a\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u4e2d\u9593\u6703\u727d\u6d89\u5230\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u548c\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u53ea\u662f\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59433,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1588,112,629,406,14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-historical-statistic","category-keynes","category-thinking","category-charlie-munger","category-insight-second-level-thinking"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59337"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59337\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":75443,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59337\/revisions\/75443"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59433"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}