{"id":59374,"date":"2025-05-25T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-25T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?p=59374"},"modified":"2025-12-05T11:07:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T03:07:52","slug":"%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%b8%bd%e6%98%af%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e4%b8%80%e5%88%87%e5%a6%82%e5%85%b6%e6%89%80%e9%a1%98%e7%9a%84%e7%99%bc%e5%b1%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/05\/25\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%b8%bd%e6%98%af%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e4%b8%80%e5%88%87%e5%a6%82%e5%85%b6%e6%89%80%e9%a1%98%e7%9a%84%e7%99%bc%e5%b1%95\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7e3d\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u4e00\u5207\u5982\u5176\u6240\u9858\u7684\u767c\u5c55"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u986f\u793a\/\u96b1\u85cf\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 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href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/05\/25\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%b8%bd%e6%98%af%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e4%b8%80%e5%88%87%e5%a6%82%e5%85%b6%e6%89%80%e9%a1%98%e7%9a%84%e7%99%bc%e5%b1%95\/#%E6%99%82%E9%96%93%E7%B5%82%E7%A9%B6%E6%9C%83%E8%AD%89%E6%98%8E%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87\" >\u6642\u9593\u7d42\u7a76\u6703\u8b49\u660e\u4e00\u5207<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/05\/25\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%b8%bd%e6%98%af%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e4%b8%80%e5%88%87%e5%a6%82%e5%85%b6%e6%89%80%e9%a1%98%e7%9a%84%e7%99%bc%e5%b1%95\/#%E7%B5%90%E8%AA%9E\" >\u7d50\u8a9e<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/05\/25\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%b8%bd%e6%98%af%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e4%b8%80%e5%88%87%e5%a6%82%e5%85%b6%e6%89%80%e9%a1%98%e7%9a%84%e7%99%bc%e5%b1%95\/#%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\" >\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%BA%BA%E9%A1%9E%E8%88%87%E7%94%9F%E4%BF%B1%E4%BE%86%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%A9%E6%80%A7\"><\/span>\u4eba\u985e\u8207\u751f\u4ff1\u4f86\u7684\u5929\u6027<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u591a\u6578\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u5931\u6557\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u7121\u6cd5\u63a5\u53d7\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/09\/01\/%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E6%8A%95%E7%A5%A8-2\/\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u7968<\/a>\u300b\u6216\u662f\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/09\/04\/%E8%B2%A0%E9%9D%A2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF%E6%98%AF%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E9%83%A8%E4%BB%BD\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8ca0\u9762\u6d88\u606f\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd<\/a>\u300b\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002\u7562\u7adf\u9019\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u8207\u751f\u4ff1\u4f86\u7684\u5929\u6027\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u514b\u670d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u767c\u751f \uff0c\u671f\u671b\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u6210\u771f\u7684\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u548c\u671f\u5f85\u7e3d\u662f\u5929\u5e73\u7684\u5169\u7aef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u500b\u6027\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u662f\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u4e26\u975e\u52a9\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u662f\u6210\u529f\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5fc5\u5099\u7684\u6027\u60c5\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%B8%80%E5%BB%82%E6%83%85%E9%A1%98\"><\/span>\u4e00\u5ec2\u60c5\u9858<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eba\u985e\u5fc3\u7406\u4f3c\u4e4e\u9700\u8981\u865b\u507d\u53d7\u9f13\u52f5\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a9\u98fe\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u7b56\u4e2d\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5f17\u745e\u5fb7\u00b7\u65bd\u5049\u5fb7\uff08Fred Schwed\uff09\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Where-Are-Customers-Yachts-Street\/dp\/0471770892\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u986f\u76f8\u5be6\u4938\uff08Where are the customer&#8217;s yachts?\uff09<\/a>\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u5beb\u51fa\u4ed6\u5c0d\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u5f88\u7d93\u5178\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\uff1a\u300c\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u7684\u5fc3\u9748\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u7a2e\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u50be\u5411\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5e95\u4f46\u9858\u6210\u771f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u679c\u7136\u662f\u771f\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u671f\u8ca8\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u671f\u7684\u898b\u89e3\u592a\u4e0d\u8a0e\u559c\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u5728\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u8b58\u4e2d\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2013\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u8457\u6709\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Irrational-Exuberance-3rd-Robert-Shiller\/dp\/0691166269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09<\/a>\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u7684\u7f85\u4f2f.\u5e2d\u52d2\uff08Robert Shiller\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u6a5f\u69cb\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5e38\u5e38\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u6c92\u6b0a\u529b\u6309\u7167\u6700\u4f73\u5224\u65b7\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u901a\u5e38\u5f97\u6191\u76f4\u89ba\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6240\u505a\u6240\u70ba\u5fc5\u9808\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5fc5\u9808\u80fd\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u89e3\u91cb\u7684\u624d\u884c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%90%B9%E5%8F%A3%E5%93%A8%E5%A3%AF%E8%86%BD\"><\/span>\u5439\u53e3\u54e8\u58ef\u81bd<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u540c\u610f\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5047\u9020\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u5728\u9ed1\u6697\u4e2d\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u5439\u53e3\u54e8\u58ef\u81bd\u300c\u7121\u975e\u5c31\u662f\u8b93\u5167\u5fc3\u5e73\u975c\u8212\u670d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u523b\u610f\u9690\u85cf\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6709\u591a\u7121\u77e5\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u6709\u4e00\u53e5\u540d\u8a00\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u7528\u5728\u6b64\u8655\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u66c9\u5f97\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%99%82%E9%96%93%E7%B5%82%E7%A9%B6%E6%9C%83%E8%AD%89%E6%98%8E%E4%B8%80%E5%88%87\"><\/span>\u6642\u9593\u7d42\u7a76\u6703\u8b49\u660e\u4e00\u5207<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c<strong>\u300a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/General-Theory-Employment-Interest-Money\/dp\/1573921394\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5c31\u696d\u3001\u5229\u606f\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u901a\u8ad6<strong>\uff08<\/strong>The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money<strong>\uff09<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u300b<\/strong>\u4e2d\u8ac7\u5230\uff1a\u300c\u6709\u6280\u5de7\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6709\u500b\u793e\u6703\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u64ca\u6557\u300e\u6642\u9593\u300f\u8207\u300e\u7121\u77e5\u300f\u9019\u5169\u7a2e\u77c7\u853d\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u9ed1\u6697\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%B5%90%E8%AA%9E\"><\/span>\u7d50\u8a9e<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u55ac\u6cbb\u00b7\u90b1\u5947\uff1a\u300c\u6bcf\u500b\u5341\u5e74\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u7279\u6709\u7684\u611a\u8822\u7279\u8cea\uff0c\u4f46\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff1a\u4eba\u5011\u5805\u4fe1\u6700\u8fd1\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u5230\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5929\u584c\u4e0b\u4f86\u4e86\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5340\u5225\u300c\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u300d\u767c\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u548c\u300c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u300d\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u8005\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"192\" height=\"120\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/hope-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"\u5e0c\u671b\" class=\"wp-image-59454\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: Ideogram<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\"><\/span>\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/12\/04\/%e4%bd%a0%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8d%e7%9f%a5%e4%b8%8d%e8%a6%ba%e4%b8%ad%e6%b7%aa%e7%82%ba%e7%a4%be%e6%9c%83%e5%ba%95%e5%b1%a4%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u5728\u4e0d\u77e5\u4e0d\u89ba\u4e2d\u6dea\u70ba\u793e\u6703\u5e95\u5c64\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/05\/25\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%b8%bd%e6%98%af%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e4%b8%80%e5%88%87%e5%a6%82%e5%85%b6%e6%89%80%e9%a1%98%e7%9a%84%e7%99%bc%e5%b1%95\/\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7e3d\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u4e00\u5207\u5982\u5176\u6240\u9858\u7684\u767c\u5c55<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a 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