{"id":62827,"date":"2025-01-11T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-11T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?p=62827"},"modified":"2026-03-03T13:28:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T05:28:53","slug":"%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/","title":{"rendered":"\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u6307\u6a19"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u5728\u8a0e\u8ad6\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u6307\u6a19\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5148\u4f86\u8ac7\u8ac7\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u9019\u500b\u540d\u8a5e\u5f9e\u4f55\u800c\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u986f\u793a\/\u96b1\u85cf\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%98%AF%E9%9D%9E%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E7%B9%81%E6%A6%AE%EF%BC%9F\" >\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff1f<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E9%80%99%E5%80%8B%E8%A9%9E%E7%9A%84%E7%94%B1%E4%BE%86\" >\u9019\u500b\u8a5e\u7684\u7531\u4f86<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E4%B9%9F%E8%A2%AB%E7%94%A8%E5%81%9A%E6%9B%B8%E5%90%8D\" >\u4e5f\u88ab\u7528\u505a\u66f8\u540d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E4%B8%8D%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E6%8E%A8%E9%AB%98%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E5%83%B9%E6%A0%BC\" >\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u7406\u6027\u63a8\u9ad8\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E7%95%B6%E6%99%82%E6%8E%A1%E5%8F%96%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%8C%E5%8B%95\" >\u7576\u6642\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u884c\u52d5<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E9%9D%9E%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E7%B9%81%E6%A6%AE%E3%80%8C%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E3%80%8D\" >\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u300c\u6307\u6a19\u300d<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E5%AE%9A%E7%BE%A9\" >\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E6%B0%B4%E6%BA%96\" >\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u6c34\u6e96<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E7%90%86%E8%AB%96%E5%9F%BA%E7%A4%8E%E5%BE%88%E5%AE%B9%E6%98%93%E6%87%82\" >\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u61c2<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8%E6%AE%96%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87%E4%B8%8A%E6%BC%B2%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%BB%E5%9B%A0\" >\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E9%82%A3%E7%8F%BE%E5%9C%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%EF%BC%9F\" >\u90a3\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/#%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\" >\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%98%AF%E9%9D%9E%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E7%B9%81%E6%A6%AE%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%80%99%E5%80%8B%E8%A9%9E%E7%9A%84%E7%94%B1%E4%BE%86\"><\/span>\u9019\u500b\u8a5e\u7684\u7531\u4f86<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u300d\u662f\u7531\u524d\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\uff08Alan Greenspan\uff09\u57281996\u5e7412\u67085\u65e5\u7db2\u969b\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\u671f\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08American Enterprise Institute\uff09\u6f14\u8aaa\u6642\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%B9%9F%E8%A2%AB%E7%94%A8%E5%81%9A%E6%9B%B8%E5%90%8D\"><\/span>\u4e5f\u88ab\u7528\u505a\u66f8\u540d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8207\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u99ac\u3001\u62c9\u723e\u65af\u00b7\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u6f22\u68ee\u5171\u540c\u7372\u5f972013\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u7684\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u7f85\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Irrational-Exuberance-3rd-Robert-Shiller\/dp\/0691166269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u4e5f\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u300a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u300b\u9019\u500b\u8a5e\u505a\u70ba\u66f8\u540d<\/a>\uff0c\u64da\u5831\u9053\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\u66f8\u540d\u7684\u9748\u611f\u6b63\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u65bc2000\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u7248\u3002\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5176\u4e2d\u5e2d\u52d2\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8a71\u6307\u51fa\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u662f\u6295\u6a5f\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u57fa\u790e\u3002\u6211\u5c07\u6295\u6a5f\u6ce1\u6cab\u5b9a\u7fa9\u70ba\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u6fc0\u767c\u4e86\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u71b1\u60c5\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u71b1\u60c5\u900f\u904e\u5fc3\u7406\u611f\u67d3\u5728\u4eba\u8207\u4eba\u4e4b\u9593\u50b3\u64ad\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u8b49\u660e\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e26\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E4%B8%8D%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E6%8E%A8%E9%AB%98%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E5%83%B9%E6%A0%BC\"><\/span>\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u7406\u6027\u63a8\u9ad8\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\u6307\u51fa\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u812b\u96e2\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5176\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u4e3b\u9ad4\u7684\u4e3b\u89c0\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u8fd1\u800c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u51fa\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u6642\uff0c\u6bd4\u723e\u00b7\u67ef\u6797\u9813\u525b\u9023\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u8b66\u544a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c \u904e\u5ea6\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u503c\u88ab\u904e\u5ea6\u63a8\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u7dd2\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%95%B6%E6%99%82%E6%8E%A1%E5%8F%96%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%8C%E5%8B%95\"><\/span>\u7576\u6642\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u884c\u52d5<br><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5982\u4f55\u5224\u65b7\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7d93\u904e\u5ea6\u63a8\u9ad8\u4e86\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u503c\u96a8\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7d93\u6b77\u610f\u5916\u4e14\u9577\u671f\u7684\u6536\u7e2e\uff1f \u6211\u5011\u53c8\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u5c07\u9019\u4e00\u8a55\u4f30\u7d0d\u5165\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u4e2d\uff1f\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u756a\u8a00\u8ad6\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u89e3\u8b80\u70ba\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u904e\u9ad8\uff0c\u6709\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u96a8\u5f8c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002 \u4e09\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u78ba\u5be6\u5347\u606f\u4e8625\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c \u5c0e\u81f4\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u51fa\u73fe\u8fd110%\u7684\u56de\u6a94\u3002\u4f46\u6b64\u5f8c18\u500b\u6708\u5167\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e26\u672a\u518d\u5347\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u56e0\u6b64\u5f8c\u4f86\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba2000\u5e74\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u5343\u79a7\u5e74\u4e16\u7d00\u5927\u5d29\u76e4\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5f8c\u4f86\u7684\u4e0d\u4f5c\u70ba\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\u3002\u7f8e\u80a1\u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b\u6307\u6578\u57282000\u5e74\u767b\u9802\uff0c2000\u5e74\u9054\u5eb7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u5f15\u767c\u80a1\u707d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%9D%9E%E7%90%86%E6%80%A7%E7%B9%81%E6%A6%AE%E3%80%8C%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E3%80%8D\"><\/span>\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u300c\u6307\u6a19\u300d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%AE%9A%E7%BE%A9\"><\/span>\u5b9a\u7fa9<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bd4\u8f03\u300c \u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u300d \u8207\u300c \u7f8e\u570b10\u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u300d \uff0c \u4ee5\u6b64\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u300c \u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u300d \u662f\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\u9664\u4ee5\u6bcf\u80a1\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u5e38\u898b\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u5012\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u6240\u6307\u7684\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u5c31\u662f\u900f\u904e\u6bd4\u8f03\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u5012\u6578\uff09 \u8207\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u300c<em><strong>\u5dee\u503c<\/strong><\/em>\u300d\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u503c\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E6%B0%B4%E6%BA%96\"><\/span>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u6c34\u6e96<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d50\u679c\u767c\u73fe\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8fd1\u4f86\u731b\u7ac4\uff0c\u8207\u6a19\u666e500\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u9918\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u7e2e\u5c0f\uff0c \u7f8e\u80a1\u76ee\u524d\u4f30\u503c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f2002\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u4e14\u6b63\u597d\u662f\u845b\u6797\u65af\u73ed1996\u5e7412\u6708 5\u65e5\u767c\u8868\u300c \u975e\u7406\u6027\u69ae\u666f\u300d 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id=\"%E7%90%86%E8%AB%96%E5%9F%BA%E7%A4%8E%E5%BE%88%E5%AE%B9%E6%98%93%E6%87%82\"><\/span>\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u61c2<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u50b5\u5238\uff0c \u80a1\u7968\u5831\u916c\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c \u80a1\u7968\u5c31\u8d8a\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c \u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002 \u7279\u5225\u662f\u7576\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5408\u7406\u6027\u4fbf\u66f4\u96e3\u88ab\u8b49\u660e\u3002\u4ee5\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c \u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u56e0\u70ba\u98a8\u96aa\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c \u5176\u9810\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u80a1\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\u901a\u5e38\u70ba\u6b63\u3002 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\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8207\u80a1\u5e02\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c \u66f4\u4e3b\u8981\u6e90\u81ea\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u5fc3\u5ddd\u666e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u4efb\u671f\u524d\u901a\u81a8\u58d3\u529b\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\uff0c \u5c0e\u7dfb\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\u6500\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6c34\u6e96\u5df2\u7d93\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u548c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7406\u4e8b\u5eab\u514b\u672c\u5c31\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ee5\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c \u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u300c\u5bb9\u6613\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9ad8\u76db\u9996\u5e2d\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u5e2bPeter Oppenheimer\u4e5f\u8b66\u544a\uff0c \u904e\u53bb\u5169\u5e74\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u6f32\u5e45\u9054\u5230\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u540c\u671f93%\u7684\u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u9810\u671f\u7372\u5229\u63a8\u52d5\u7f8e\u80a1\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c \u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u7372\u5229\u4e0d\u5982\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c07\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%82%A3%E7%8F%BE%E5%9C%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u90a3\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6a19\u666e500\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u7684\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u70ba27.87\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u70ba3.59%\uff081\/27.87\uff09\u300210\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u70ba4.76%\uff1b\u5169\u8005\u7684\u5dee\u503c\u70ba\u300c\u8ca0\u7684\u300d1.17%\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c0d\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff1a2000\u5e741\u6708\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7db2\u8def\u5373\u5c07\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5373\u5c07\u5927\u5d29\u76e4\u524d\u7684\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u768410\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u70ba6%\uff0c\u6a19\u666e500\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u7684\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u70ba27.37\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5169\u6bb5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6a19\u666e500\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u7684\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u503c\u5f88\u63a5\u8fd1\uff08 27.87 \u548c 27.37\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u96e3\u602a\u4e00\u76f4\u98ca\u5347\u4e0d\u6b62\u768410\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u503c\u6703\u5687\u58de\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u559a\u9192\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7576\u5e74\u5d29\u76e4\u524d\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Irrational-Exuberance-indicator-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u6307\u6a19\" class=\"wp-image-62918\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">credit: Ideogram<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\"><\/span>\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/\">\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19\u70ba\u4f55\u6bd4\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u66f4\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/07\/20\/%e8%81%af%e9%82%a6%e5%bf%ab%e9%81%9e%e5%b0%8d%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e7%9b%b4%e6%8e%a5%e7%9b%b8%e9%97%9c%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e8%82%a1\/\">\u806f\u90a6\u5feb\u905e\uff08Fedex\uff09\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u80a1\u5982\u4f55\u8cfa\u9322\uff1f\u70ba\u4f55\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u4e0b\u5761\uff1f <\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/13\/%e9%81%8e%e5%8e%bb%e7%99%be%e5%b9%b4%e6%a8%99%e6%99%ae500%e5%a0%b1%e9%85%ac%e9%80%a3%e5%85%a9%e5%b9%b4%e8%b6%85%e9%81%8e%e4%bb%a3%e8%a1%a8%e7%89%9b%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%8420\/\">\u904e\u53bb\u767e\u5e74\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u5831\u916c\u9023\u5169\u5e74\u8d85\u904e\u4ee3\u8868\u725b\u5e02\u768420%\u5f8c\u6703\u767c\u751f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/\">\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u6307\u6a19<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/03\/%E6%A5%B5%E5%85%B6%E6%BA%96%E7%A2%BA%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E8%96%A9%E5%A7%86%E8%A6%8F%E5%89%87%EF%BC%88sahm-rule%EF%BC%89\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%E8%81%AF%E6%BA%96%E6%9C%83%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%8A%E6%BC%B2%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0a\u6f32\u55ce\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/07\/04\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e7%9c%8b%e5%be%85%e7%b8%bd%e9%ab%94%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e8%b5%b0%e5%8b%a2%e5%92%8c%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u52e2\u548c\u9810\u6e2c\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/11\/27\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e6%b3%a8%e6%84%8f%e5%8c%af%e7%8e%87%e9%a2%a8%e9%9a%aa%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/09\/29\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%ad%b7%e5%b9%b4%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%a7%e7%94%9f%e7%94%a2%e7%b8%bd%e5%80%bcgdp%e6%9f%a5%e8%a9%a2%e5%99%a8\/\">\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503cGDP\u67e5\u8a62\u5668<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/11\/16\/%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BA%BA%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%AF%E7%9F%A5%E7%9A%84%E5%92%8C%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E8%B3%87%E8%A8%8A\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u8981\u5177\u50992\u8981\u4ef6\uff1a\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u7684<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/11\/20\/%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E7%9F%A5%E8%AD%98%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E7%9A%84%E6%98%AF%E5%BB%A3%E5%BA%A6\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/08\/01\/%E6%93%87%E6%99%82%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E7%82%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%A0%B9%E6%9C%AC%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%8D%E9%80%9A%EF%BC%9F\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u548c\u64c7\u6642\u4ea4\u6613\u70ba\u4f55\u6839\u672c\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?s=%E5%8F%AA%E5%9C%A8%E6%84%8F%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E6%98%8E%E7%89%8C%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BA%BA\">\u300a\u53ea\u5728\u610f\u80a1\u7968\u660e\u724c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/granitefirm.com\/investing\/reference\/morelegendbooks.htmlhttps:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/reference\/us-stock-resource\/%E8%83%BD%E4%BD%BF%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E6%8F%90%E6%98%87%E7%9A%84seeking-alpha\/\">\u300b<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/12\/19\/%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E6%9C%89%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%86%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E6%9C%89%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%8F\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u6210\u529f\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/04\/19\/%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%bb%e8%a6%81%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%8e%9f%e5%89%87%e5%a4%a7%e5%90%8c%e5%b0%8f%e7%95%b0%ef%bc%9f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6210\u529f\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6295\u8cc7\u539f\u5247\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u7570<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/10\/02\/%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E8%A3%A1%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E7%A2%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%80%A7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u672c\u7ad9\u5167\u5bb9\u70ba\u4f5c\u8005\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u50c5\u4f9b\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u4e0d\u5c0d\u6587\u7ae0\u5167\u5bb9\u3001\u8cc7\u6599\u4e4b\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u3001\u770b\u6cd5\u3001\u8207\u5373\u6642\u6027\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u8acb\u52d9\u5fc5\u81ea\u884c\u5224\u65b7\u3002<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>\u5c0d\u65bc\u8b80\u8005\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e26\u53c3\u8003\u672c\u7ad9\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8cc7\u884c\u70ba\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e4b\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u9593\u63a5\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u6216\u56e0\u6b64\u7522\u751f\u4e4b\u4e00\u5207\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u5747\u4e0d\u8ca0\u4efb\u4f55\u640d\u5bb3\u8ce0\u511f\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u4e4b\u8cac\u4efb\u3002<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u845b\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u6240\u6307\u7684\u9019\u500b\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u6307\u6a19\u5c31\u662f\u900f\u904e\u6bd4\u8f03\u80a1\u7968\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u5012\u6578\uff09 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