{"id":73280,"date":"2025-09-26T23:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/?p=73280"},"modified":"2025-11-17T07:57:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T23:57:12","slug":"%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19\u70ba\u4f55\u6bd4\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u66f4\u5408\u7406\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_83 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u986f\u793a\/\u96b1\u85cf\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #ffffff;color:#ffffff\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/#%E6%9C%80%E5%8E%9F%E5%A7%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%A7%8B%E6%83%B3%E4%BE%86%E8%87%AA%E8%91%9B%E6%8B%89%E6%BC%A2\" >\u6700\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u69cb\u60f3\u4f86\u81ea\u845b\u62c9\u6f22<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/#%E5%B8%AD%E5%8B%92CAPE%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\" >\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/#%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\" >\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/#%E7%82%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%B8%AD%E5%8B%92CAPE%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E8%BC%83%E5%8F%97%E6%8E%A8%E5%B4%87%EF%BC%9F\" >\u70ba\u4f55\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19\u8f03\u53d7\u63a8\u5d07\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/#%E9%91%91%E5%BE%80%E7%9F%A5%E4%BE%86%EF%BC%8C%E6%AD%B7%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%A8%93\" >\u9451\u5f80\u77e5\u4f86\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u6559\u8a13<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/#%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1CAPE%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\" >\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1CAPE\u6307\u6a19<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/#%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\" >\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%9C%80%E5%8E%9F%E5%A7%8B%E7%9A%84%E6%A7%8B%E6%83%B3%E4%BE%86%E8%87%AA%E8%91%9B%E6%8B%89%E6%BC%A2\"><\/span>\u6700\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u69cb\u60f3\u4f86\u81ea\u845b\u62c9\u6f22<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u845b\u62c9\u6f22\uff08Benjamin Graham\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5c07\u591a\u5e74\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u662f7\u5e74\u621610\u5e74\uff09\u6536\u76ca\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u4ee5\u7372\u5f97\u66f4\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4ed6\u4fdd\u5b88\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5728\u8207\u5927\u885b\u00b7\u591a\u5fb7\u5408\u8457\u7684\u300a\u8b49\u5238\u5206\u6790\u300b\uff081934\u5e74\uff09\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u904b\u7528\u591a\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u76ca\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\uff0c\u4ed6\u555f\u767c\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B8%AD%E5%8B%92CAPE%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\"><\/span>\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u5e2d\u52d2\uff08Robert Shiller\uff091998\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff08Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio, CAPE\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u7a31\u70ba\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8abf\u6574\u6bd4\u76ca\u6bd4\u3002\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u53bb\u9664\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u80a1\u50f9\u9664\u4ee510\u5e74\u9593\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u53bb\u9664\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u500b\u8abf\u6574\u7d93\u6fdf\u5468\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u5f8c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u8a55\u4f30\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u5b83\u901a\u904e\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5be6\u969b\u6536\u76ca\u9032\u884c\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u50b3\u7d71\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u5c0d\u8a55\u4f30\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\"><\/span>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/04\/27\/%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%9E%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E7%9A%84%E7%A5%9E%E8%AB%AD\/\">\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u8ff0\u66f8\u7c4d\u2014\u80a1\u795e\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u795e\u8aed\uff08Tap Dancing to Work\uff09<\/a>\u300b\u5c31\u66fe\u5f15\u7528\u904e\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\u6240\u6709\u516c\u958b\u4e0a\u5e02\u4f01\u696d\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4fe1\u5168\u570bGDP\u7522\u503c\u7684\u6bd4\u91cd\uff1a\u8dcc\u523070%\u621680%\uff0c\u8cb7\u9032\u80a1\u7968\u7372\u5229\u6703\u5f88\u597d\u3002\u5047\u5982\u63a5\u8fd1200%\uff0c\u4f8b\u59821999\u548c2000\u5e74\uff0c\u6216\u662f2021\u5e74\u8fd1220%\uff0c\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u5c31\u662f\u5f15\u706b\u71d2\u8eab\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u7d04\u70ba220%\uff0c\u5275\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u66fe\u8868\u2f70\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u300c\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u5728\u4efb\u2f00\u7279\u5b9a\u6642\u523b\u8861\u91cf\u4f30\u503c\u2f54\u6e96\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u55ae\u2f00\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a191970\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e73\u5747\u503c0.95\u3002\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6578\u4e00\u65e6\u8d85\u904e100\uff05\u5c31\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u4f30\u503c\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u57282020\u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u8a72\u6307\u6578\u7d04\u70ba170\uff05\u3002\u4f46\u8fd1\u4f86\uff0c\u8d85\u904e150\uff05\u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u5e38\u614b\u3002\u64da\u6089\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u66fe\u57282000\u5e74\u524d\u5f8c\u7684\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\u671f\u767c\u8868\u8a00\u8ad6\u7a31\u300c\u9019\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u5f37\u70c8\u7684\u8b66\u8a0a\u300d\u3002\u8acb\u53c3\u95b1\u6211\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u8cbc\u6587\u7684\u8aaa\u660e\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8861\u91cf\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u904e\u71b1\u5177\u8aaa\u670d\u529b\u7684\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\uff08Buffett indicator\uff09<\/a>\u300b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u65e6\u8d85\u904e100\uff05\u5c31\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd1\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u6307\u6578\u8d85\u904e150\uff05\u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u5e38\u614b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a\u5f9e\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u71df\u6536\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u503c\uff09\u7684\u6210\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u9060\u9060\u8d85\u904e\u7d93\u6fdf\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6210\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u4ed6\u4e26\u975e\u70ba\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u800c\u767c\u660e\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19,\u5b83\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5b8f\u89c0\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u5b83\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u6574\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u4fbf\u5b9c\u9084\u662f\u6602\u8cb4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%82%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%B8%AD%E5%8B%92CAPE%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E8%BC%83%E5%8F%97%E6%8E%A8%E5%B4%87%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u70ba\u4f55\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19\u8f03\u53d7\u63a8\u5d07\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6279\u8a55\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u4e0d\u5168\u7136\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u61f7\u7591\u8ad6\u8005\uff0c\u6240\u6301\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u662f\u6d77\u5916\u4e8b\u696d\u5360\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u6574\u9ad4\u71df\u6536\u548c\u76c8\u9918\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u5403\u91cd\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u898f\u6a21\u6108\u5927\uff0c\u6d77\u5916\u71df\u6536\u7684\u4f54\u6bd4\u6108\u9ad8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u57fa\u65bc\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u6d77\u5916\u71df\u6536\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e00\u570b\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff08GDP\uff09\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u53ef\u80fd\u8f03\u4e0d\u7cbe\u6e96\u2500\u2500\u9019\u662f\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u8f03\u504f\u597d\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6574\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c2024\u5e74\u7f8e\u80a1\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u4f01\u696d28%\u71df\u6536\u4f86\u81ea\u570b\u5916\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u8a31\u591a\u8f03\u5c0f\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u7f85\u7d202000\u6307\u6578\u9019\u500b\u6bd4\u7387\u70ba20%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u770b\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\u5e02\u503c\u6210\u9577\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u624b\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e03\u96c4\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u696d\u8005\u7d04\u534a\u6578\u71df\u6536\u4f86\u81ea\u570b\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u503c65.47\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u9664\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u768430.15\u5146\u7f8e\u5143GDP\uff0c\u7b97\u51fa\u76ee\u524d\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u70ba217%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u628a\u5e02\u503c\u6e1b\u638910\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e03\u96c4\u534a\u6578\u71df\u6536\u4f86\u81ea\u570b\u5916\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u5c07\u964d\u81f3183%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u628a\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u8a0a\u79d1\u6280\u985e\u80a1\u7d0d\u5165\u8003\u91cf\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u9084\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%91%91%E5%BE%80%E7%9F%A5%E4%BE%86%EF%BC%8C%E6%AD%B7%E5%8F%B2%E7%9A%84%E6%95%99%E8%A8%93\"><\/span>\u9451\u5f80\u77e5\u4f86\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u6559\u8a13<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u770b\uff0cShiller P\/E\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u672a\u4f86\u8868\u73fe\u4e0d\u4f73\u7684\u9810\u5146\u3002\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c1929\u5e74\u30011966\u5e74\u548c2000\u5e74\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u9802\u9ede\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u88e1\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u4e86\u7d93\u901a\u81a8\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u8ca0\u56de\u5831\u3002\u9019\u6bb5\u6b77\u53f2\u6cd5\u5247\u8b93\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c0d\u7576\u524d\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u7591\u616e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CAPE\u6216Shiller P\/E\u6307\u6a19\u5df2\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5167\u7a81\u783440\u5927\u95dc\u3002\u9019\u662f\u8a72\u6307\u6a19\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u4f86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u9054\u5230\u5982\u6b64\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u6b21\u662f\u57281999\u5e74\uff0c\u5373\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u6642\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E7%9A%84%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1CAPE%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\"><\/span>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1CAPE\u6307\u6a19<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524dCAPE\u6307\u6a19\u66f4\u662f\u5df2\u9054\u5230\u4e86\u8fd1150\u5e74\u6b77\u53f2\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u7684\u7b2c98\u500b\u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6839\u64da\u80a1\u7968\u7d93\u901a\u81a8\u8abf\u657410\u5e74\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u70ba39.92\u500d\uff0c\u903c\u8fd140\u500d\u95dc\u5361\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aol.com\/articles\/shiller-p-e-ratio-trusted-144325362.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b21\u7a81\u783440\u500d\u662f\u5728\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u6ec5\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u662f\u8a72\u6307\u6a19\u9996\u6b21\u5347\u783440\u500d<\/a>\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u4e4b\u524d\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u4e0d\u66fe\u5347\u783430\u500d\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u524d\u5915\u662f\u4f8b\u5916\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u5df2\u9ad8\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u9010\u6f38\u903c\u8fd1\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u6642\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u8a73\u60c5\u8acb\u898b\u6211\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u8cbc\u6587\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/24\/%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e5%92%8c%e5%8f%b0%e8%82%a1%e5%90%84%e9%a0%85%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e6%af%94%e8%bc%83%ef%bc%8c%e7%9b%ae%e5%89%8d%e5%85%a9%e8%80%85%e7%9a%86%e8%99%95%e5%8f%b2%e4%b8%8a%e9%ab%98%e9%bb%9e\/\">\u7f8e\u80a1\u548c\u53f0\u80a1\u5404\u9805\u4f30\u503c\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5169\u8005\u7686\u8655\u53f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u9ede<\/a>\u300b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"90\" height=\"103\" src=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/CAPE-Custom.jpg\" alt=\"CAPE\" class=\"wp-image-73301\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%9B%B8%E9%97%9C%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0\"><\/span>\u76f8\u95dc\u6587\u7ae0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/26\/%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92cape%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%af%94%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e6%9b%b4%e5%90%88%e7%90%86\/\">\u5e2d\u52d2CAPE\u6307\u6a19\u70ba\u4f55\u6bd4\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\u66f4\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/01\/11\/%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e6%a6%ae%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u6307\u6a19<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/06\/27\/%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8861\u91cf\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u904e\u71b1\u5177\u8aaa\u670d\u529b\u7684\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19\uff08Buffett indicator\uff09<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/04\/27\/%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%9E%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E7%9A%84%E7%A5%9E%E8%AB%AD\/\">\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u8ff0\u66f8\u7c4d\u2014\u80a1\u795e\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u795e\u8aed\uff08Tap Dancing to Work\uff09<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/09\/20\/%e4%b8%80%e4%ba%9b%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e5%b0%8d%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%92%8c%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e8%b5%b0%e5%90%91%e5%88%a4%e8%ae%80%e6%9c%83%e6%9c%89%e5%8a%a9%e7%9b%8a\/\">\u4e00\u4e9b\u6307\u6a19\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u666f\u6c23\u8d70\u5411\u5224\u8b80\u6703\u6709\u52a9\u76ca<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/07\/20\/%e8%81%af%e9%82%a6%e5%bf%ab%e9%81%9e%e5%b0%8d%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e7%9b%b4%e6%8e%a5%e7%9b%b8%e9%97%9c%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e8%82%a1\/\"> <\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2025\/07\/20\/%e8%81%af%e9%82%a6%e5%bf%ab%e9%81%9e%e5%b0%8d%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%99%af%e6%b0%a3%e7%9b%b4%e6%8e%a5%e7%9b%b8%e9%97%9c%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e8%82%a1\/\">\u806f\u90a6\u5feb\u905e\uff08Fedex\uff09\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u80a1\u5982\u4f55\u8cfa\u9322\uff1f\u70ba\u4f55\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u4e0b\u5761\uff1f <\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/03\/%E6%A5%B5%E5%85%B6%E6%BA%96%E7%A2%BA%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E8%96%A9%E5%A7%86%E8%A6%8F%E5%89%87%EF%BC%88sahm-rule%EF%BC%89\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6e96\u78ba\u7387\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u767e\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6307\u6a19\u85a9\u59c6\u898f\u5247\uff08Sahm Rule\uff09<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2023\/08\/11\/%e6%83%a0%e8%ad%bd%e4%b8%8b%e8%aa%bf%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e4%bf%a1%e7%94%a8%e8%a9%95%e7%b4%9a%e7%9a%84%e7%90%86%e7%94%b1%e5%92%8c%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf\/\">\u60e0\u8b7d\u4e0b\u8abf\u7f8e\u570b\u4fe1\u7528\u8a55\u7d1a\u7684\u7406\u7531\u548c\u5f71\u97ff<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/09\/29\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e4%ba%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%85%a9%e5%a4%a7%e6%ae%ba%e6%89%8b%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e5%92%8c%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87\/\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u6bba\u624b\uff1a\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u548c\u7a05\u8ce6<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2024\/08\/13\/%E8%81%AF%E6%BA%96%E6%9C%83%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E4%B8%8A%E6%BC%B2%E5%97%8E%EF%BC%9F\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0a\u6f32\u55ce\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2021\/07\/04\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e7%9c%8b%e5%be%85%e7%b8%bd%e9%ab%94%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e8%b5%b0%e5%8b%a2%e5%92%8c%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u52e2\u548c\u9810\u6e2c\uff1f<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.granitefirm.com\/blog\/blog\/2022\/11\/27\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e6%b3%a8%e6%84%8f%e5%8c%af%e7%8e%87%e9%a2%a8%e9%9a%aa%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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