SpaceX IPO will be the largest in History
How big is the scale?
The total fundraising target is estimated to be between $40 billion and $80 billion, giving SpaceX a rough market capitalization of $1.7 trillion. There are also reports that SpaceX has raised its target valuation to over $2 trillion. Currently, a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion would rank it as the sixth largest company by market capitalization on the US stock market, after Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. If it exceeds $2 trillion, it would be the fifth largest company on the US stock market.
SpaceX’s IPO will easily surpass the size of Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing, which remains the record holder for the largest IPO in history.
Secret filing expected in mid-June
The filing is expected to be submitted to the SEC as early as the next few days, with a target date in mid-June.
Driving US Stock Market
SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) is scheduled for mid-June 2026. If SpaceX achieves its fundraising target, it will surpass Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion record set in 2019, becoming the world’s largest IPO.
The powerful spillover effect of SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO is one of the main drivers behind the outperformance of space-related stocks in the US stock market this year.
IPO Boom
Another manifestation of the powerful spillover effect of SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO is that it will also boost the US IPO market, benefiting related stocks. Otherwise, given the weak performance of the US technology and overall market this year, it would be unsuitable to conduct IPOs on the US stock market.
A Unique Approach
Increased Retail Allocation
SpaceX plans an unconventional IPO strategy to attract investors, increasing the allocation to retail investors. It may prioritize allocating up to 30% of its shares to individual investors, a significantly higher percentage than the typical 10% in a IPO. This aims to leverage Musk’s massive fan base and retail investor base to support post-IPO stock performance.
This percentage is three times the typical retail allocation in an IPO. To execute this strategy, Musk has selected Bank of America (BofA) to handle the retail stock allocation. This listing structure reflects Musk’s attempt to proactively shape the shareholder structure and trading behavior, strengthening retail influence.
Rocket Launch Visits replace roadshow
SpaceX will arrange for analysts to voluntarily visit xAI’s Macrohard Data Center in Memphis, Tennessee on April 23, and plans to hold a video conference on May 4.
SpaceX is also breaking with the traditional roadshow format of executives visiting investors. Sources indicate that Musk plans to invite investors to visit SpaceX facilities, including its Los Angeles headquarters and the Cape Canaveral launch site in Florida, to tour the manufacturing process and even watch rocket launches, encouraging fund managers and analysts to “leave with large orders.” This differs from the usual practice of executives personally giving presentations.
Twitter Shareholders to Receive Priority Shares
SpaceX is also considering giving priority to Tesla shareholders and investors who participated in Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now X.com). Musk has repeatedly expressed his intention to allow Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX’s investment.
Extended Lock-up Period
In addition, SpaceX may extend the lock-up period for some early investors to avoid excessive selling pressure in the early stages of the IPO. There are also plans to eliminate traditional lock-up periods for some investors.
Immediate Inclusion in Market Indices
SpaceX is also evaluating the possibility of being included in major indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, which would bring a significant amount of passive buying. However, this may be difficult to achieve immediately because, under the current Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index component rules, SpaceX may not be able to be included on the day of its IPO.
On March 31, 2026, Nasdaq announced an adjustment to its index inclusion rules! Large IPOs can now be included in the Nasdaq index in as little as 15 days. Many believe this move is a green light for SpaceX, as the previous rule required at least three months.
What SpaceX Group include?
Tesla is not included
Since Elon Musk has repeatedly stated in recent years that he has lost enthusiasm for electric vehicles, Tesla’s stock performance has been among the worst of the seven major tech stocks. He also spends most of his time on companies outside of Tesla, which he controls; see my other post for details, “Staying away from Tesla to make you safe“
SpaceX’s Four Pillars
Besides its core businesses such as rocket launches, the most valuable part of the SpaceX Group is Starlink, which is currently possibly the only profitable division.
Following X.ai’s acquisition of X.com two years ago, and then merging X.ai into SpaceX last year, Wall Street speculates that Musk will eventually merge Tesla and all its businesses into SpaceX to increase its market valuation.
Tesla’s businesses
Please note: Tesla is not just about electric vehicles; it also includes many well-known businesses, including the famous Optimus humanoid robots and self-driving RoboTaxis. See my other post, “Staying away from Tesla to make you safe” or the tables in section 5-8 of my second book, “The Rules of 10 Baggers“, which specifically introduce the Tesla empire and provide detailed explanations of all Tesla’s business entities.
Businesses in a No-Man’s-Land
Besides the businesses under Tesla and SpaceX, Musk also runs many businesses that are not affiliated with Tesla or SpaceX. These businesses, operating in a no-man’s-land with unclear jurisdiction, include: Neuralink, Dojo Supercomputer, The Boring Company, TeraFab, Macrohard, and AI cloud computing, among others. The optimistic expectations of these unlisted companies are automatically included in this category.
How is SpaceX doing?
Quick financial assess
According to The Information, citing sources, Musk’s soon-to-be-listed SpaceX is projected to lose nearly $5 billion in 2025, while generating over $18.5 billion in revenue. This loss includes the performance of Musk’s AI startup xAI, which was acquired by SpaceX in February 2026.
In January 2026, research by Reuters and several financial institutions projected that the company’s revenue last year was between $15 billion and $16 billion, with profits of approximately $8 billion and EBITDA estimated at around $7.5 billion. However, at that time, the company had not yet merged with xAI. In 2024, SpaceX launches and Starlink continued to contribute the vast majority of revenue, which was estimated at around $13.1 billion to $14.2 billion. This revenue is projected to approach $20 billion by 2026, while xAI’s revenue is likely to be less than $1 billion.
SpaceX launch missions and Starlink still contribute the vast majority of revenue, projected to approach $20 billion by 2026, while xAI revenue is likely to be less than $1 billion.
According to IPO documents obtained by aerospace and technology analysts on April 21, leaked financial figures show that SpaceX’s total revenue in 2025 is approximately $16 billion, and is expected to reach approximately $25 billion in 2026. It has approximately $25 billion in cash and $50 billion in debt, but most of the debt appears to stem from Musk’s AI business, xAI.
SpaceX has growth potential
SpaceX holds approximately 80% of the commercial rocket launch market share and also operates the Starlink communications service. Starlink provides internet service, enabling users to access communications in areas where high-speed internet would otherwise be unavailable. In addition to commercial rocket launches and satellite communications services, the company also has significant growth potential as a defense-related service provider for government clients.
Only Starlink matters, the golden goose
SpaceX’s Starlink boasts 9 million users and defense contracts. Starlink is the only unit within SpaceX that has so far proven to be profitable and generate sustainable commercial revenue.
Starlink is currently the company’s main source of revenue and profit: it accounts for about 65 to 70% of the company’s revenue, and the market estimates that its service gross margin is extremely high at about 60%.
The Information cited Starlink’s 2025 financial figures that they had seen, showing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 63% and generating $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, a 50% year-over-year increase, representing 61% of SpaceX’s total revenue.
According to IPO documents obtained by aerospace and technology analysts on April 21, leaked financial figures show that Starlink’s paid user base will exceed 9 million by the end of 2025 and is expected to reach approximately 12 million by the end of 2026, with an EBITDA margin exceeding 60%.
How much are the other units worth?
SpaceX’s IPO valuation could exceed $1.75 trillion. Prior to this, SpaceX merged with xAI, a deal that valued the rocket company at $1 trillion and xAI, the developer of the Grok chatbot, at $250 billion.
SpaceX’s IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion is largely based on its Starlink satellite business.
Conclusion
SpaceX’s valuation depends almost entirely on investors’ belief in Musk’s vision.
It’s very simple: believe in him, and SpaceX has unlimited growth potential; conversely, if you don’t, SpaceX is the biggest valuation bubble in history.
Don’t waste your money on SpaceX’s IPO
Over the past 20 years, some of the most significant and notable IPOs that have broken fundraising records include Visa, Meta, Alibaba, General Motors, UPS, and Saudi Aramco. Note that these mega-corporations were all profitable at the time of their IPOs. Six months after their IPOs, only Visa’s stock price rose by 23%, Meta, Alibaba, General Motors, UPS, and even Saudi Aramco saw their stock prices fall by 38%, 9%, 8%, 11%, and 15% respectively.
Unless you have an exceptionally high tolerance for losses or have an unusually large amount of money to burn, I advise investors not to invest in SpaceX’s IPO! It has yet to prove its profitability, and its only comparable metric—the price-to-sales ratio (P/S)—is in the triple digits, which seems unreasonable.
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