Statistics might be a trap!
Shoot before set target
Almost every opinion leader who has read this book, including Munger, agrees that the most important point is that in order to be truly proficient in a field, in addition to talent, one must invest about 10000 hours of effective training.
If you know statistics, market surveys, or research, you might understand the accuracy of statistics highly dependent on the design of questions, the methods or techniques of questioning, and the interpretation of data. That is, the same set of data, everyone’s views can be different. Why is this so? There are many reasons: for example, lack of professionalism, sample size, bias, errors, preconceived notions, target first and then shoot arrows.
But one of the most serious and most capable of changing statistical results is preconceived ideas “Shoot before set target”────because statistics and market surveys belong to more fields of non-science, and the mathematics and statistics involved in the middle are just tools . It is people who report and interpret in the end; as long as there are people, there will be prejudice.
Masters’ opinion
Charlie Munger made a thought-provoking comment on this phenomenon: “To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. ”
Mark Twain once said an interesting quote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, hateful lies, and statistics.”
Keynes said: “When statistics seem unreasonable, I have found that sense is usually wiser than statistics!”
I can get the statistics I want
I quote Graham in section 5-2 in my book of “The Rules of Super Growth Stocks Investing”, he said: “The combination of precise formulas with highly imprecise assumptions can be used to establish, or rather to justify, practically any value one wishes.”
I have published an article on this blog, “Non-quantitative factors determine success or failure of an investment” discussed this topic. In short, in order to get the results I want, I can design the results that will meet my final expectations. The survey method, and then packaged with statistical methods, can be used to increase persuasiveness when publishing. In fact, our society, including elections, shopping malls, and Wall Street, uses such methods every day. Modern people actually live in such an environment, but it is difficult for us to notice it!
Related articles
- “Statistics can be deceiving“
- “Outliers – great finding on 10000 hours“
- “Investment Return, be careful of the numbers pitfall“
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