From a post several days ago
The reason for this post
Several days ago, I attended a media interview for the publication of my new book, “Investors Beautiful Heaven“. Public reaction on my three published books on stocks, six years of blogging, interactions with numerous readers, friends, colleagues, and long-term dealings with publishers (all well-known top Taiwanese publishers), I wrote a short post titled “Almost no long-term Taiwan investors“
After the post, the public reaction on “Almost no long-term Taiwan investors” was overwhelmingly positive. I am especially grateful for several other friends. Please forgive me for not being able to list all their names and reply to everyone.
Why turn to accept?
In short, these friends’ passion, dedication, and achievements in investing are truly inspiring. Several of the letters were from people writing for the first time. They mentioned that they had previously been hesitant, skeptical, and even disbelieving about long-term investing. Later, through accumulated experience and trial and error, and after missing out on substantial profits, they confirmed that long-term investing is the right path, and thus convinced themselves of its importance (this is crucial).
Key Points of This Article
In their replies and letters, they shared their views on the topic of long-term investing. This article aims to summarize and organize the experiences and opinions provided by these friends; in addition, it incorporates points I’ve made on this blog, in my books, and famous quotes from important investment masters regarding long-term investing. I hope to share these again and provide you with some reference.
Most People’s Responses
Most Common Reasons
The most common reasons I received from friends for why almost no Taiwanese investors engage in long-term investing were: “The Taiwanese stock market is shallow,” “There are almost no stocks in Taiwan worth long-term investment,” “Long-term investment in Taiwanese stocks almost always results in losses,” “It’s difficult to pick profitable stocks,” and “The stocks I bought haven’t risen much in the long run and have even resulted in losses.”
My View
What I want to say is:
- As Warren Buffett said, “Investing is simple, but not easy.”
- Stocks worth investing in (note my use of the word ‘investment,’ not ‘long-term investment’) are inherently “very few.”
- Although outstanding listed companies are very few, it is not an impossible task for a small number of Taiwanese stock market investors to achieve exceptional long-term investment returns; with effort, it is achievable.
- Since stocks listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange are worth considering for long-term investors, “why not switch to investing in US stocks?” and “Are there any regulations preventing Taiwanese people from investing in US stocks?”
Investment gurus on “timing the market”
John Templeton
John Templeton: “Long-term, consistent investing will definitely make you money. But if you’re trying to time the market perfectly, forget it!” In September 2025, Rick Wurster, CEO of Charles Schwab, reiterated Templeton’s maxim on Yahoo Finance’s “Opening Bid” program: “It is time in the market, not timing the market, that counts.”
Bill Miller
In October 2021, Bill Miller released his final letter to investors after 40 years of investing, writing: “What really makes you money is the time you spend in the market, not precise market timing.” He suggested partially reducing holdings if market valuations are extremely high, but the key is to re-enter when prices are low, because most people forget to re-enter after selling at the peak. “What we need to believe in is time, not timing; that’s the key to getting rich in the stock market.”
Buffett
At the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, Buffett admitted that he had never figured out how to time the market correctly, missing the opportunity to buy stocks at the bottom in March 2020. Buffett said, “We’re not good at market timing.” He added, “What we’re good at is figuring out when to get enough capital for ourselves. We don’t know when to buy what, but we always hope that there will be a period of decline so we can buy more.”
Keynes
Keynes: “In the long run, to profit from investing, buying a pound of securities for 15 shillings is much safer and simpler than selling a pound of securities for 45 shillings and then trying to buy them back for 12 shillings.”
Charles Ellis
Charles Ellis once said, “When volatility comes, you have to be there. That’s why market timing is a really evil idea; don’t try it.”
Facts prove stay in market makes money
Missing the 1% period means working for nothing
Bolton. In his book A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel cites research from the University of Michigan, indicating that over a 30-year investment period (7,500 trading days), 95% of returns come from just 90 trading days. Missing these 90 trading days, which represent only 1%, results in zero returns.
Over the past 30 years
Since 1995, missing the 10 best-performing trading days due to panic selling has directly reduced returns by 60-70%; specifically, the Nasdaq index would have lost 68%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 74%, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average 58%.
Over the past 109 years
In Chapter 3 of “Wining the loser’s game“, Charles Ellis cites research by Javer Estrada: “Missing the ten best-performing trading days over the past 109 years means missing out on two-thirds of total returns.”
Closing words
If everything we discuss were easy, wouldn’t everyone be rich? There would be no Warren Buffett!
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