Never be silly again, Staying away from Tesla to make you safe!
Sale, profitability,value are all declining
Stop Model S and Model X Production
According to data released by Cox Automotive and Tesla, since 2020, combined sales of the Model S and Model X have only reached 239,452 units, with 18,955 units sold last year. Although Musk stated that production will shift to Optimus robots, the reality is that Tesla’s electric vehicles simply cannot compete with their Chinese counterparts, a fact Musk himself has acknowledged.
Revenue and profitability are deteriorating
The 2025 financial report shows that full-year revenue decreased by 3% to US$94.8 billion. Profits in 2025 fell by 46%, with energy storage contributing US$3.6 billion of the US$3.8 billion net profit. If this business is excluded, the overall profit would be close to a loss.
Brand Value Declines for 3rd Consecutive Year
A new study by Brand Finance, released on January 26, 2026, shows that Tesla’s brand value declined significantly in 2025 as CEO Elon Musk’s role in the political arena became increasingly prominent. According to the report, Tesla’s brand value evaporated by approximately $15.4 billion last year, a drop of 36%, marking the third consecutive year of decline and highlighting the widening gap between general consumer perception of Tesla and that of Wall Street investors.
Brand Finance CEO David Haigh stated that the weakening of Tesla’s brand value is related to several factors, including insufficient innovation in new models, relatively high pricing of electric vehicles compared to competitors, and Musk’s diversion of attention to geopolitics and public issues, rather than focusing on the core automotive business.
How are Tesla’s cars selling?
Europe
According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), Tesla’s electric vehicle registrations in Europe in October 2025 totaled only 6,964 units, a sharp drop of 48.5% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, overall electric vehicle registrations in the region, including the UK and EFTA countries, increased by 32.9% in October, and total registrations of all vehicles, regardless of powertrain, also increased by 4.9%.
This means that Tesla’s sales in Europe have declined for ten consecutive months. Furthermore, the overall market share of electric vehicles in the European automotive market has risen to 16.4%.
USA
Data from research firm Cox Automotive shows that Tesla’s US market share in August 2025 fell to its lowest level in nearly eight years. Compared to competitors constantly launching new electric vehicles to attract buyers, the models offered by the billionaire Elon Musk’s company appear outdated. Increased electric vehicle incentives from other manufacturers also pose a threat. Reuters reports that preliminary data from Cox shows Tesla accounted for only 38% of total U.S. electric vehicle sales in August, marking its first time falling below 40% since October 2017; Tesla’s U.S. market share had previously exceeded 80%.
Data released by Morgan Stanley shows that in July 2025, Tesla’s share of pure electric vehicle sales in the U.S. was 41.3%, lower than 49.7% in the same period last year. U.S. sales of pure electric vehicles excluding Tesla grew by 39.1% year-on-year, while Tesla’s sales declined by nearly 5% during the same period.
China
Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that the retail penetration rate of pure electric vehicles was 57.2%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year. Tesla delivered its worst performance in three years in October, selling a total of 26,006 vehicles, a 63.64% decrease compared to the previous month and a 35.76% decrease compared to the same period last year. In terms of brand rankings, Tesla dropped from 7th place in September to 27th.
A fundamental question
Auto BU is only worth $30 per share
Investment bank William Blair stated in December 2025, “The weight of Tesla’s automotive business is being significantly diluted. We assessed this in our previously released segment valuation analysis. The automotive business is effectively worth only about $30 to $40 per share.”
Tesla’s Future Isn’t in Cars
Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that Tesla’s future lies in Full Self-Driving (FSD), Optimus robots, and artificial intelligence. Moreover, Musk has repeatedly told investors during earnings calls (he has indeed repeatedly reminded investors) not to buy Tesla stock if they don’t believe in his vision for FSD, Optimus robots, and artificial intelligence.
Musk initially believed that automakers would want to adopt Tesla’s FSD, but he himself admitted that no automakers were interested in it. Despite repeated warnings from the US government that FSD’s features were exaggerated in advertising, its actual adoption rate among Tesla owners in Europe is extremely low. As for China, Tesla’s FSD functionality lags far behind Chinese automakers, and nobody wants to use it.
Optimus robots? Musk himself admitted in earnings calls that nine of the world’s top ten humanoid robot manufacturers are Chinese.
And artificial intelligence? Grok, from Musk’s X.ai, lags behind not only US companies like OpenAI, Gemini, and Anthrophic in various rankings and user numbers, but also in China, it’s far behind DeepSeek and Qwen.
So, where is Tesla’s future?
Uninformed Investors Persuaded
The Blindness of the Crowd
The crowd is blind, especially in the stock market.
Clearly, investors were persuaded by Musk that Tesla’s stock price and valuation are not solely based on Tesla as a company. Regardless of any reasonable valuation method, Tesla’s performance has consistently been inconsistent with its stock price and valuation from any perspective.
Investors Persuaded by Musk
There is only one reason for this phenomenon: investors who bought Tesla stock were persuaded by Musk to automatically factor in the optimistic expectations of his unlisted companies such as X.ai, SpaceX, Starlink, X.com, Optimus Robotics, Neuralink, Dojo Supercomputer, and The Boring Company.
How are the non-Tesla BU performing?
Of all Musk’s companies, only Starlink (note that this is not SpaceX, which is unprofitable; however, Starlink is a major subsidiary of SpaceX) is currently likely to be profitable.
Since his acquisition, X.com’s corporate value has plummeted, revenue has declined, and it has faced boycotts from major corporate advertisers.
X.ai has been touting its powerful AI capabilities, but according to The Information, the generative AI startup xAI (X.AI) has encountered difficulties selling its Grok AI model to other companies.
Musk’s much-touted Optimus robot mass production plan has been repeatedly delayed, and investors seem indifferent and unreviewed. Musk himself has stated that nine of the world’s top ten humanoid robot companies are Chinese, suggesting that the humanoid robot industry, like the electric vehicle industry, may be dominated by China in the future.
Tesla’s much-hyped self-driving car project has yet to be commercialized, generating no revenue; in terms of technology, test mileage, and actual expert testing, it lags far behind leading AlphaGo’s Waymo, essentially being on a completely different level. As for its Chinese competitors, Tesla is nowhere near their level.
In December 2025, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) stated that if Tesla did not adjust its marketing practices, which were accused of misleading consumers regarding its driver assistance technology, its eligibility to sell electric vehicles in California could be suspended for 30 days. Similar accusations against Tesla regarding misleading consumers and exaggerating its driver assistance technology have been a recurring theme in official and regulatory orders from various countries since the launch of Tesla’s Driver Assistance and Autopilot systems.
Neuralink, Dojo Supercomputer, and The Boring Company are not actually among the leading companies in the industry.
No company supervisory mechanism
A dysfunctional and self-serving board
An Equilar report indicates that Tesla’s board members have earned over $3 billion through stock awards, far exceeding their peers at other major U.S. tech companies.
Tesla’s board agreed to suspend director compensation starting in 2021 to address shareholder lawsuits alleging excessive board pay. However, between 2018 and 2020, Tesla directors received an average of approximately $12 million in cash and stock compensation.
Elon Musk’s brother, Kimbal Musk, has received nearly $1 billion since 2004. Another director, Ira Ehrenpreis, has received $869 million since 2007. Tesla’s chairman, Robin Danholm, has received $650 million since 2014.
Tesla’s board also pays its own compensation with stock options instead of stock, a rare practice that has drawn criticism from some corporate governance experts because it amplifies directors’ upside potential without addressing downside risk.
Shareholders Paying for a part-time CEO
It’s fundamentally unreasonable for a part-time CEO to receive a trillion dollars. Even more unreasonable is that Tesla investors are willing to pay a trillion dollars to someone whose media outlets have repeatedly reported a lack of enthusiasm for electric vehicles, and Musk himself has admitted that he currently spends most of his time and energy on other companies “non-Tesla.”
Why should shareholders pay someone to work for other companies?
Ridiculous Compensation Plan
Musk’s appetite has grown ever larger; being the world’s richest man is no longer enough. His outdated compensation plan, dating back to before, has been the subject of a shareholder class-action lawsuit for years.
The trillion-dollar compensation plan is fundamentally unreasonable!
Controversy surrounding Musk
Musk’s controversies are countless
Tesla rose to prominence with electric vehicles, but primarily it was thanks to Elon Musk. The company and Musk are inextricably linked, unmatched by any other publicly traded company, even surpassing Steve Jobs in his prime. But when Musk becomes a controversial figure, the company is in danger.
Accustomed to making grand promises
Of course, Musk has repeatedly declared and made grand promises over the years, repeatedly setting unprecedented goals. But few people have tracked how many of these promises have come true? How many have been implemented according to plan? The answer is overwhelmingly negative.
Strangely enough: investors don’t investigate; they still support him and buy Tesla stock.
A Failed Political Figure
Musk’s decline stems from his excessive arrogance. Starting with his role in helping Trump win his second term, he became fully involved in the US government, wielding considerable influence, creating a supposedly efficient government department that has now proven a complete failure, triggering a backlash from US civil servants.
Then, he went on a high-profile campaign, using funds and his company SpaceX to intervene in right-wing elections across Europe, raising concerns in many countries and leading to widespread resentment directed at Tesla.
Excessive Power
Controlling SpaceX, SpaceX, Starlink, Grok, Neuralink, Optimus, The Boring Company, and now Tesla, his power is excessive and unreasonable.
Tesla is a mega-meme stock
Investors forgot it was a car company
Tesla stock has been glamorous, and indeed, it “once” made many investors dozens of times their initial investment. But investors forgot one thing: Tesla is a car company: How competitive is Tesla in manufacturing cars? Is it profitable to sell cars? What is its market share? What is its future prospect? Investors shouldn’t fool themselves; face the facts! Don’t gamble with your money.
Tesla is actually a mega-meme stock, it always has been, and it is even more so now.
Cinderella’s magic will eventually wear off
When Musk’s narrative loses its grip, and Wall Street’s enthusiasm wanes, stocks will plummet. Gravity and fundamentals cannot be altered by human intervention; a rubber band will eventually break down.
The question isn’t whether it will happen, but when.
Insane valuation
Tesla’s stock valuation is absurd; anyone who isn’t a novice investor can see it. Among the top ten companies by market capitalization, those with a total market cap exceeding one trillion dollars for nearly a decade, have consistently maintained price-to-earnings ratios between 100 and 300.
Do you think such valuations are reasonable? Never before in history has a top-ten listed company been valued so ridiculously. Please note that Tesla is no longer a startup or small-to-medium-sized enterprise.
Stock Price Deviates from Fundamentals
Wall Street’s outlook on Tesla’s profitability has become increasingly conservative over the past two years, yet its expectations for the stock price have conversely increased, creating a rare divergence.
Data shows that in 2025, analysts’ average estimate for Tesla’s 2026 net profit decreased by 56%, from $14.1 billion to $6.1 billion; however, during the same period, the average 12-month target price increased from $337.99 to $409.49.
Currently, Tesla’s forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeds 195 times, making it not only the highest valued stock among the “Big Seven” but also significantly higher than the other members’ levels of approximately 25 to 30 times. Looking at the entire S&P 500 index, Tesla’s valuation is second only to Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and higher than high-growth stocks like Palantir.
Closing words
On February 9, 2026, Musk stated, “Tesla’s market capitalization could one day reach $100 trillion.” This reveals his consistent arrogant and boastful nature, and also exposes his astonishing level of absurd ignorance of the capital market—because the total value of all listed companies in the world’s stock markets is approximately $125 trillion, and the total wealth of the world is only $240 trillion.
As President Lincoln famously said, “You can fool all the people all the time, and all the men and women all the time, but you can’t fool all the people all the time.” You can fool people temporarily, but you can’t fool them forever.
This quote is perfectly applicable to Tesla. Staying away from Tesla to make you safe
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