India stock tripled in three years to US$4 trillion, ranking fourth in the world

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India stock eye-popping performance

According to statistics from Goldman Sachs in July 2023, since 2000, the proportion of individual stocks that have appeared in various global markets within a five-year rolling period has been 10 times, and India leads other markets with 54%.

At the end of 2023, the Indian stock market set a record of eight consecutive years of gains, with the total market value exceeding US$4 trillion.

The world’s fourth largest stock market

The size of the India stock market has surpassed that of the United Kingdom and France, according to QUICK FactSet statistics, as of December 6, 2023, the market value of the Indian stock market has exceeded the US$4 trillion mark for the first time, ranking fourth in the world after the United States, China, and Japanese markets.

Tripled in 3 years, raised 100 times in 30 years

Breaking the records

So far, the Indian stock market has set the following astonishing records:

If counting from the 1990s, the Indian stock market has increased by more than 100 times.
It has increased by nearly 20 times in the past 20 years.
It has tripled in the past three years.

Depreciation and inflation help

At least half of the rise in the Indian stock market comes from currency depreciation and inflation. Since 1991, India’s money supply has increased 93 times, while the stock market has increased 66 times. Therefore, at least half of the rise in the Indian stock index comes from currency depreciation and inflation.

Short-term catalysts

In the short term, there are many reasons for this rise. Judging from the news, the factors that directly triggered the Indian market to hit new highs this time are related to India’s domestic elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party achieved key victories in three of the four state parliamentary elections. Modi will be re-elected in the general election in May next year. The likelihood increases. This is equivalent to eliminating a political risk factor for Indian stock investors, and more people will bet that government policies will remain consistent. The major stock index Nifty50 has risen by more than 13% since 2023. Another major benchmark stock index – India’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex index also hit a record high.

In the past four election cycles, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) generally lowered policy rates during the election period and refrained from raising interest rates for at least three quarters after the election. The Indian rupee (INR) depreciated against the US dollar during the election and has continued to depreciate since. Affected by this, the stock market generally trades actively during the election and continues to rise after the election.

In addition, the IPO craze in India in recent times has also contributed to the hot market in the Indian stock market. The Economist pointed out that India is in the midst of an unusual IPO boom. As of early November this year, 194 companies have been listed in India, far exceeding the 144 in the whole of 2022.

However, if a market can perform strongly and hit new highs one after another, it must be inseparable from the strong support of economic fundamentals. India’s recently announced third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.6% compared with the same period last year, ranking first among the world’s top ten economies.

Long-term reasons

The real reasons why the Indian stock market “trebled in three years” and “raised 100 times in 30 years” are summarized as follows:

The economy continues to be active.
The stock market system adopts a registration system and strict elimination and delisting standards.
The population composition is young, resulting in strong consumer demand.
The growth of enterprises is especially driven by the rise of listed companies of major domestic consortiums.

These factors have become the main catalysts for the stock market to rise for eight consecutive years.

Compared with other stock markets around the world

How has the Indian stock market performed compared to other global stock markets over the past three decades? Please see my other detailed post “Global stock markets performance comparision over the past 30 years in a table“, which contains detailed information.

Newly listed companies

Indian startups have raised a total of US$10 billion since 2021, surpassing the sum of the past three years, and up to 150 companies may be listed in the next three years. The booming on India venture capital will accelerate the the India stock market.

Before move on, it’s recommended you to read my blog article “Indians do well in the US, India’s weak and uncompetitive industries“.

Risks

Valuation is too high

From a valuation perspective, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Indian stock market benchmark index Sensex is 24.3, the US S&P 500 index is 24.59, the Nikkei 225 is 19.3, the Shanghai Composite Index is 11.9, and the Hang Seng Index is 9.9.

Therefore, the valuation of the Indian stock market is already very high. Coupled with the influx of too many retail investors, which has led to overheated trading, there is a possibility of a pullback at any time. The Indian stock market has experienced similar valuations four times in the past 30 years, each time leading to a five-year period of stagnation.

Political risk

The biggest risk at the political level is also Modi. Wall Street pointed out: “If the Bharatiya Janata Party suffers an unexpected defeat like in 2004, then I expect the stock market to see a 25% correction, or even more.” It also means that India’s existing radical reform projects will There are big adjustments.

Six conglomerates hinder competitoin

The six consortiums that Modi relies on control 25% of ports, 45% of cement, one-third of steel manufacturing, nearly 60% of telecommunications users, and more than 45% of coal imports. Analysis by the Indian Economic Monitoring Center shows that since 2014, a quarter of new investment proposals by private companies in India have come from the above-mentioned consortium. While monopoly consortiums can drive large, groundbreaking projects, too much industrial concentration can also stifle competition, meaning India’s vision of rising power may be hampered by a lack of widespread private investment.

Long-term headwinds

India’s female labor force participation rate is low, infrastructure and business environment are poor, the land system restricts scale development, and capital market valuations are high.

India’s service industry is developing well, and the software outsourcing industry, technology, generic drugs, and film industries all have certain advantages. However, India’s manufacturing industry does not develop as well as China’s, which will affect the overall national strength, exports, and even demographic dividend and consumption in the future, as well as the possibility of upward growth of GDP.

Although India’s export volume will reach a new high in 2022, the net export deficit will still expand due to the large increase in import volume, and the trade deficit situation will be difficult to improve, which is detrimental to India, which wants to be export-oriented in the future. This is also when commodity exports weaken, currency devaluation is the only way to save exports, hoping that service exports will grow to ease the pressure on the net export deficit.

According to World Bank data, manufacturing will account for only 13% of India’s GDP in 2022, compared with 28% in China. Investment bank Macquarie pointed out that logistics costs in India account for 18% to 20% of total production costs, while in China it is only 8% to 10%.

These factors make it unlikely that future investments in India will experience the substantial growth seen in the past.

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