Introduction
The approach
Nuclear power is a power plant that uses radioactive metal (mainly uranium) to generate electricity based on the principle of nuclear fission reaction as a heat source. The main operation of nuclear power generation is to use neutrons to hit uranium nuclei to control the rods to regulate the chain reaction of uranium fuel splitting. When uranium nuclei split, a large amount of energy is released, which can convert liquid water into water vapor. Like other thermal power plants, heat is used to drive a steam turbine engine and is connected to a generator to generate electricity.
Regarding the use of uranium for power generation, please see my other article “Uranium (Uranium) Trading Has Bounced Back from the Bottom” for details.
Nuclear energy is the main energy source
According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), nuclear energy will account for 9% of global power generation sources in 2022. I have introduced nuclear energy in the book “The Rules of 10 Baggers“: Section 3-7, pages 168-169.
Main advantages
The main advantage of nuclear power is that it does not emit greenhouse gases when generating electricity, so nuclear power has long been regarded as an alternative to fossil fuels. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the use of nuclear energy has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 70 billion tons over the past 50 years.
Main disadvantages
Nuclear power generation will produce radioactive nuclear waste after nuclear fission, which cannot be completely processed with current technology. Since nuclear power plants started generating electricity in 1951, about 460,000 tons of used nuclear waste have been shipped from nuclear power plants around the world. They can all be installed in an American-style football stadium, which is about the size of a 12-story square.
The construction cost of nuclear power plants is high, the technical requirements are high, and the maintenance costs are also high. Nuclear power plants are actually quite safe facilities when they are well controlled and have complete emergency response systems around them.
Three accidents hinder development
Nuclear power generation has been greatly affected by the Mishima Island in the United States, Chernobyl in Ukraine, and Fukushima nuclear power incidents in Japan, as well as the opinions of anti-nuclear people. Among energy types, it has been greatly affected.
Wind direction changes
Business Insider reported that the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011 accelerated the international move toward nuclear waste, causing uranium demand to fall into a slump and remain dormant for 10 years. However, as extreme weather rages and countries actively promote the transformation of clean energy, nuclear energy is not affected by weather conditions compared to solar or wind power, so it has once again become a popular option for power supply.
Not perfect, but necessary
At the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) in November 2023, one of the main consensuses of the meeting was-“Without a massive increase in global nuclear power, it is absolutely impossible for the world to achieve an energy transition.” The United States, along with more than 20 other countries, has pledged to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions and limit climate change.
Even as clean energy has boomed this decade, there is a growing recognition that reliable sources of clean electricity are needed to support wind and solar. Nuclear power is one of the few clean energy sources that can be used when wind and solar are unavailable due to weather conditions. time, it can provide uninterrupted power.
Taiwan does the opposite
You read that right, nuclear energy is green energy, and both the EU and Taiwan officials believe so. According to the latest definition of the U.S. Department of Energy, nuclear energy, which is not a renewable energy source, will also be included in clean energy.
Note: When questioned on October 31, 2023, Taiwan Executive Yuan Chen Chien-jen stated that “nuclear power is green energy” and was optimistic about the development of nuclear energy into nuclear fusion.
Taiwan is one of the few countries in the world that still insists on putting politics above science and professionalism, and advocates the abolition of nuclear weapons regardless of the fact that Taiwan is experiencing an overall power shortage. Extreme reliance on fossil fuel-based thermal power generation will sooner or later lead to global trade boycotts. Taiwan is a country that relies heavily on foreign export trade, but this potentially major risk is already occurring, but has been covered up in Taiwan. .
In 2020, thermal power generation (mainly from fossil) in Taiwan accounted for 82% of total power generation. Taiwan ranks fifth from the bottom in international climate change performance evaluations, and its greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy development, and energy use performance are all ranked “very poor” at the bottom of the world.
Note:
The “Climate Change Performance Index 2021” (CCPI 2021) was announced in Germany on the 7th. Taiwan ranked 57th among 61 countries, belonging to the lower class.
Nuclear power generation trends
Technologies currently used
The latest nuclear power generation technology that has been put into commercial operation is the third-generation nuclear power generation unit.
Generation 4 technology
Introduction
Generation IV reactors (Gen IV) are a series of theoretical reactor designs under research. Their design features are: sustainable utilization of nuclear energy, economy, safety and reliability, and non-proliferation and physical protection. Most plans are considered unlikely to be commercially viable before 2030-2040. Most of the reactors currently in commercial operation are second-generation reactors, and there are only a dozen third-generation reactors. Most of the first-generation systems have been retired.
China has been commercialized
In 2023, the Huaneng Shidaowan High-temperature Gas-cooled Reactor Nuclear Power Plant in Rongcheng, Shandong Province completed a 168-hour continuous operation test and was officially put into commercial operation. This is also the world’s first fourth-generation nuclear power unit.
Famous cases
Bill Gates founded TerraPower, a nuclear energy company using fourth-generation technology in 2006 and serves as its director. He is committed to applying wave reactor technology to nuclear power plants and hopes to develop the first demonstration point of wave reactors. Built in China. To this end, Bill Gates has visited the mainland many times and had close contact with CNNC and China Shenhua Group.
In 2020, after three years, the fourth-generation nuclear power reactor (nuclear reactor) cooperation between China Nuclear Power and Microsoft founder Bill Gates failed. Since its partner TerraPower of the United States unilaterally terminated its cooperation in wave reactor technology in accordance with the requirements of the US government, China National Nuclear Power Corporation decided to dissolve and cancel the relevant companies and suspend its attempts at fourth-generation nuclear power wave reactor technology.
Miniaturized nuclear reactor
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are reactors that are smaller than conventional nuclear fission reactors, and their electrical output is less than 300 MWe or their thermal power output is less than 1000 MWth. It can be mass produced in the factory and transported to the designated location for installation. It can reduce the structure of the building, increase the efficiency of the building and is claimed to improve the safety of the reactor. Achieved using passive safety features that require no human intervention, small modular reactors also reduce the number of employees compared to traditional reactors.
In 2020, the United States officially approved small commercial reactors and is expected to build 12 reactors to improve the energy conversion efficiency of nuclear energy.
Nuclear power plant construction
Rosatom
Russia currently dominates the international market, with 20 units under construction by mid-2022, 17 of which are located in seven other countries. The impact of war sanctions and other potential geopolitical developments on these construction plans is uncertain.
Rosatom is a state-owned company founded in 2007. Specializes in nuclear energy. It is composed of more than 360 companies, including scientific research organizations, nuclear weapons factories and the world’s only nuclear icebreaker fleet. Rosatom is one of the leaders in the world’s nuclear energy industry and the largest power generation company in Russia. Its power generation in 2019 was 208.8TWh, accounting for 19.7% of the country’s total power generation. The company ranks first in the largest investment portfolio of new overseas nuclear power plant construction projects, including 36 nuclear power plants in various stages of construction in 12 countries.
China General Nuclear Power Group
In 2021, due to the deterioration of relations between China and the West, it will affect China General Nuclear Power Corp. The British government has removed China General Nuclear Power Group from all future power construction plans in the UK, including plans to build a new £20 billion Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk, eastern England.
The original 2015 agreement made CGN a 20% partner in the construction of the planned Sizewell C nuclear power plant on the Suffolk coast, with the option to participate in its construction. It was also finalized that CGN would invest in the 3.2 billion Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant being built in Somerset. One case. According to the agreement, CGN has also become the leading developer of the Bradwell B nuclear power plant in Essex, and will adopt the Hualong One reactor, the world’s latest third-generation nuclear power generation unit that has been put into commercial operation in 2021. furnace technology.
Others
Except for Rosatom and China General Nuclear Power Corporation, due to the small number of cases, high technical threshold and high cost, only the following few companies are still serving as the main contractors of Shizuo nuclear power plants overseas:
- France’s Electricite de France (EDF, ticker: ECIFY)
- Korea Electric Power Corporation of South Korea (ticker: KEP)
- GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH, unlisted)
- Siemens (ticker: SIEGY)
- Westinghouse Electric (unlisted)
Nuclear energy use worldwide
Worldwide summary
According to the IAEA, global terminal energy consumption will increase by about 30% in 2050, and electricity consumption will double. Globally, coal still accounts for an important share of the electricity mix, accounting for about 35% in 2022, and its share has not changed much since 1980. However, the proportion of nuclear energy, renewable energy, and natural gas power generation has grown rapidly in the past 40 years. Especially nuclear energy, which will account for 9% of global power generation sources in 2022.
According to the IAEA, the global nuclear power installations will reach 900GW in 2050, and global nuclear power generation will grow steadily. Data from “World Nuclear Power Reactors (2023 Edition)” show that as of December 31, 2022, 32 countries have a total of 411 nuclear power units in operation, with an installation capacity of 371 GW (electricity); 18 countries have a total of 58 nuclear power units under construction. , the installation capacity is 59.3 GW (electricity).
France
Countries with the highest nuclear power generation
France has long been the country with the highest proportion of nuclear power generation in the world, and the proportion has remained stable at more than 70% in the 2010s. According to data from the International Energy Agency, France’s nuclear power generation accounted for 69% of total power generation in 2021, far exceeding hydropower, wind power and natural gas power generation.
Although the government has gradually downplayed nuclear power in recent years and strongly encouraged renewable energy power generation, it is expected that the proportion of nuclear power generation in France will still be as high as 67.2% by 2025. S&P Group predicts that by 2025, France’s nuclear power generation will account for 67% of total power generation.
The system is riddled with problems
French nuclear power plant units that are already too old are also a factor in increasing maintenance work at EDF. Most of France’s nuclear power plants were built between 1979 and 1994. Under the leadership of then-President Pompidou, 37 nuclear power plants were built in just seven years from 1980 to 1986.
Policy swings
The reason why the state-controlled EDF dares to defy the government is that Paris itself has always been in a state of uncertainty on its stance on nuclear power.
After the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in Japan in 2011, although the Sarkozy government tried to ease public anti-nuclear sentiment through stress tests at nuclear power plants across France, according to data from the French public opinion polling company IFOP at the time, 62% of French people supported nuclear power in the next 25 years. Nuclear power will be phased out within 20 to 30 years, and another 15% of the public hope to abandon nuclear power as soon as possible.
In order to cater to public opinion, President Hollande, who was elected in 2012, promised to gradually reduce the proportion of nuclear energy in France’s energy structure to 50% and phase out a number of old nuclear power plants by 2025. However, France ultimately failed to do so during Hollande’s term. No nuclear power plants have been shut down.
Plans for a nuclear renaissance
After experiencing a large-scale off-grid maintenance of nuclear power plants in the winter of 2021, Macron proposed a plan for nuclear energy revitalization in February 2022.
The program content includes, subject to technology permitting:
- No more decommissioning of existing nuclear power plants
- Increase the service life of nuclear power plants from 40 to 50 years
- Invest 50 billion euros to build 6 to 8 new nuclear power plants based on the second-generation European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR2) starting from 2028
- EDF was commissioned to assess new plans for eight additional nuclear power plants.
- Complete nationalization of EDF at a cost of 10 billion euros (the French government currently holds 80% of the shares)
- And launch a nuclear power education offensive domestically to attract enough engineers to enter the nuclear power industry
Re-embracing nuclear power
In November 2018, France publicly announced that it would close 14 of the then 58 operating reactors before 2035, and reduce the nuclear power generation ratio from 75% at the time to 50%. Five years later, the situation has completely reversed!
France re-embraces nuclear power. The strategy announced between November 22 and December 15, 2023 will be included in the “Energy Production Act” to be introduced in 2024. As part of the plan to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, the country may build as many as 14 new nuclear reactors before 2050; including plans to build 6 new nuclear power plants by the end of 2026, on this basis it is discussing whether to build more nuclear reactors. Build 8 large nuclear reactors.
As well as pushing for more new nuclear power plants, Macron’s government plans to extend the lives of existing plants to meet the electricity needs of the French economy as it transitions away from fossil fuels. Data show that currently, oil accounts for 37% and natural gas accounts for 21% of France’s energy consumption.
European Union
About a quarter of electricity sources rely on nuclear power, and nuclear power dependence will continue. The 100 nuclear reactors operating in 12 of the 27 EU member states have a cumulative installed capacity of 97GW, accounting for about a quarter of the entire EU’s power generation. In addition, according to the “Nuclear energy in the European Union” report released by EPRS (European Parliamentary Research Service), Europe’s dependence on nuclear power is unlikely to decrease, although many countries are working to diversify their fuel supplies.
USA
According to statistics in 2023, the United States has 54 nuclear power plants and 93 nuclear reactors scattered in 28 states across the United States, accounting for nearly 20% of the country’s power generation. However, the nuclear reactor technology in the United States is old and very old, with an average age of 41.6 years. The energy conversion efficiency is not very high by today’s standards.
In 2022, the U.S. government promotes a $6 billion plan to save nuclear power plants that may be closed, saying that the continued use of zero-carbon-emitting nuclear energy is an effective way to combat climate change. This is also the federal government’s response to nuclear energy in financial difficulties so far. Furnace maximum hand investment.
China
Mainland China is the leader in new nuclear power construction. It is building 21 nuclear reactors, twice as many as other countries.
It is far superior to the United States in terms of technology and practical applications. The power generation capacity exceeds 21 GW; the United States is currently building a nuclear reactor with a power generation capacity of slightly more than 1 GW.
According to the WNA, China plans to build a total of 25 nuclear reactor units with a cumulative device capacity of 28,481 MWe, which will be completed and put into use between 2023-2028. There are 54 nuclear power units in commercial operation, with a total installed capacity of approximately 56.82 million kilowatts, ranking third in the world.
According to statistics at the end of 2022, the proportion of nuclear power generation in mainland China has reached 5%, and it is estimated that it will rise to 20% in 2060. In 2035, the total capacity of nuclear power installations in operation and under construction will reach 200 million kilowatts. China’s nuclear power generation is expected to exceed that of the United States, and its proportion will rise to about 10%.
Japan
The world’s largest nuclear power plant is located in Niigata, Japan. It is the Kashiwazaki-Gari Nuclear Power Plant, which consists of 7 reactors and has a capacity of 8.2GW.
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