Note: The distinction between “confirmed new technology trends” and “exaggeratedly boasted or unconfirmed new technology trends” listed above is strict. “Confirmed new technology trends” must be accepted by the market and have no controversy. , has been widely adopted by general users, is now proven to be truly disruptive, and must be profitable; and the above list is purely my personal opinions.
Confirmed or hyped over the past four decades
1700s
Confirmed
In 1769, Watt improved the early industrial steam engine, triggering the Industrial Revolution.
1800s
Confirmed
After the Civil War, the three major American families frantically built railroads. In the five years from 1868 to 1873, 70,000 kilometers of railroads were built. The total length of China’s railways is now only 150,000 kilometers.
Trains and railways have changed the way humans travel, replacing the ancient way of relying on animal power for long-distance transportation.
1850s
Confirmed
Oil exploration and collection created the Rockefeller family, the richest man in human history.
1900s
Confirmed
The invention and mass production of cars and airplanes have changed the mode of human travel, and their influence continues to this day.
1920s
Confirmed
Mining was the main industry at the time, and the Industrial Revolution and World War I detonated human demand for mineral deposits. The stock market tycoons in the United States and Japan of that era, without exception, all relied on mining stocks to make their fortunes.
1930s
Confirmed
Eisenbrandt invented phenolic resin in 1907, and Sten Gustaf Thulin invented polyethylene (PP) plastic bags in 1959. Between these two, leading chemical companies such as DuPont were founded and became rich.
1950s
Confirmed
The emergence of Sears, the first major retailer, changed the way people bought.
1960s
Confirmed
The invention of computers and electronic products still affects us today, and IBM is one of the case.
1970s
Confirmed
Semiconductor, computer mouse.
1980s
Confirmed
PC, Ethernet, computer graphical user interface (GUI), laser printer, PostScript, PDF.
Overhyped
Downsize and distributed computing processing migrated from mainframes.
1990s
Confirmed
Wireless telecommunications networks, optical discs, Internet commercialization, e-commerce networks, search engines.
Overhyped
Napster, Internet computers.
2000s
Confirmed
WiFi wireless communications, mobile devices, smartphones, tablets, cloud computing, LCD panels, social networks.
Overhyped
3D TV and movies.
2010s
Confirmed
Smart watches, fintech, iTunes, streaming music, streaming videos.
Overhyped
Blood tests for all diseases, electric scooters, shared office spaces, artificial meat, non-fungible tokens (NFT), CryptoCurrency, third-generation Internet (Web3), virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), 3D printing, nanotechnology, Hyperloop, drone delivery.
2020s
Confirmed
Large artificial intelligence models and GPUs can accelerate artificial intelligence training.
Overhyped
Metaverse, self-driving cars.
Note: The distinction between “confirmed new technology trends” and “exaggerated or unconfirmed new technology trends” listed above is quite strict. “Confirmed new technology trends” must be accepted by the market, uncontroversial, widely adopted by general users, truly proven to be disruptive, and profitable. Moreover, the list above is purely my personal subjective opinion and viewpoint.
Inductive rules
Not everything that shines is gold
Because people have the fear of missing out (FOMO), most people are unwilling to spend time and effort to find out what the truth is. Is it worth the investment? As a result, investment fraud cases are rampant. For example, Theranos can deceive countless Wall Street investment experts, wealthy people, and celebrities around the world by falsely claiming that a drop of blood can detect all diseases.
Investors who are interested in this topic can refer to my previous post of “No fear of miss out a great company, No FOMO“
Inventions are rare, mostly improvements
This is the most difficult part. There are very few new technologies that really change human life, maybe one every ten years. For example, the steam engine that triggered the industrial revolution, the cars and airplanes that changed the way humans travel, and even the wheel that truly saves human effort and convenience.
Then again, the greater the scientific and technological revolution, the longer it will continue to benefit mankind. Of course, the scope of profits will be larger and the number of people will be greater. The so-called new inventions listed in the previous paragraph, It still affects everyone to this day.
However, we don’t have to belittle ourselves. In fact, we don’t have to come up with the so-called new inventions listed in the previous paragraph. Sometimes, as long as it is an improvement based on existing technology, it can be of endless use.
Because there are actually very few real new inventions of mankind. Most of them are improvements, but this is enough. For details, please see my previous post of “Inventors are rarely successful, but improvers are successful and profitable“
It may take time to prove
It may take some time for new technology to be accepted by the world. This does not mean that the technology introduced is not good; it may be that the environment at that time is not suitable for the development of this new technology. E-commerce is an example; after the Internet bubble in 2000, most people doubted the practicality of the Internet.
If we extend the time, 20 years later, no one will question the changes that the convenience of e-commerce has brought to our lives. Webvan was considered a joke at the time, but now it is a service that everyone uses every day.
Amazon also experienced such doubts during the Internet bubble in 2000. The stock price was sold off in large quantities, reaching a low of only US$5.5, and fell by more than 95% from its high point in one breath.
Large companies have high success rates
Numerous examples have proven that if a so-called new technology is launched by a large technology company, the probability of success and market acceptance is indeed much higher. Apple is especially an expert in this field.
In order to attract investors and funds, start-up companies initially claim to have many new technologies that are very attractive, but the real world is cruel. Most of the new technologies launched by start-up companies end up in failure, with the company going bankrupt.
Conclusion
Whether it is a donkey or a horse, you will know if you take it out for a walk. Only those that survive rigorous testing by the market and consumers are qualified to be called new technological trends that change the world and lead the trend.
Richard Feynman said it well: “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.” Don’t put the cart before the horse.
Related article
- “Rules from new technology in 250 years“
- “18 future industry trend and three industries driving billionaire wealth“
- “Inventors are rarely successful, but improvers are successful and profitable“
- “No fear of miss out a great company, No FOMO“
- “Steve Jobs’s Apple innovation gone with him?“
- “Investment knowledge required is breadth, not depth as most people think“
- “Apple’s product design philosophy, How does Apple think?“
- “Why Apple’s new features always come later? “
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