What is a lottery-like stock?
Definition
Lottery-like stock is a common term in the stock market in recent years. People usually refer to stocks with strange and weird stock price trends as “lottery-like stocks.” The trend of such stocks is contrary to the market or common sense, completely inconsistent with the fundamentals of the stock, and inconsistent with general market rules.
In other words: The trend of lottery-like stocks is obviously abnormal compared with other stocks, which is unreasonable and difficult to figure out. Generally, it rises and falls sharply. It is clear that the company is losing money, but it has repeatedly raised the daily limit; it is clear that the valuation of the company’s stock does not meet such a high price, but the valuation is very shocking.
When investors suspect that a company’s skyrocketing share price may be due to market manipulation rather than business improvement or excessive exuberance on social media, “lottery-like stocks” are also used to describe such stocks.
Synonyms
“Lottery-like stock” has many synonyms, and “Penny stock” came from Hong Kong, because even gods can’t explain it. “Memes stock” or “Internet celebrity stock” are terms mainly used in the United States in recent years–these terms refer to the same thing.
Everyone may have different opinions, but the term “touted stock” is commonly used in the Chinese world. I personally think it is more or less the same. The reason is that everyone uses touted stock just to be able to use it. To get rich in the short term, do you expect the stock price trend of this stock to “shoot out of the ground”?
As for the English terminology of demon stock, there are many sayings, lottery-like stock, skewed stock.
Illusion
Most people (especially those in the Chinese community) believe that China produces most of the lottery-like stocks. China’s modern stock market has a short history of just over thirty years, with incomplete regulations. Retail trading volume accounts for 70% (about 25% in the United States). Of course, China’s stock market also has There are many lottery-like stocks, and the number cannot be described in just one word, but there are very many.
But one of the misconceptions is that the Chinese community prefers to read Chinese-language media, and the West has been anti-China and anti-China in recent years, trying to demonize anything from China. The media only quotes news from the West, and the West controls the right to speak, and tends to By reporting worries rather than good news to China, their purpose is to brainwash and suppress China’s development.
The truth is-because the scale of US stocks is so huge, the United States is the largest place for such stocks.
Why do lottery-like stock stocks appear?
In a word, “The demand for supply and the greed of human nature make it so.”
What will be the fate of the lottery-like stocks?
There are no exceptions. After the short-term madness, the best outcome for all lottery-like stocks is to become dull, but most of them will just lie flat, with their stock prices plummeting, and they will never stand up again.
Famous lottery-like stocks recent years
Let’s take a look at some famous examples of so-called lottery-like stocks that have been famous in various countries in recent years.
US
The most famous one is the recent Supermicro (ticker: SMCI. For details, please see my other article “Supermicro, a repeat offender of scandals, valuation is not justified and unsustanable, no worth for long-term holding“)
At the beginning of 2021, U.S. retail investors were stimulated by social media and forums such as the WallStreetBets subforum, and flocked to invest in stocks such as GameStop (ticker: GME) and AMC Theaters (ticker: AMC). The share prices of these “influencer stocks” have risen more than 1,500%, confusing hedge funds, stock analysts and regulators.
The craze for Internet celebrity stocks has largely subsided in the United States as the overall stock market declines and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes prompt people to choose safer haven assets. The stock prices of GameStop and AMC Theaters are down 50% and 60% respectively from last year’s peak (but still 10 times higher than the issue price in 2021.) Morgan Stanley estimates that retail investors’ gains during the boom period of Internet celebrity stocks All has been lost.
China
As much as 62% of the Chinese stock market closed down on August 9, 2023. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed down 0.49% and 0.53% on the 9th. The transaction value of the two cities was RMB 736.6 billion, which was less than the previous trading day. 62.3 billion yuan. However, three new stocks listed on the same day bucked the market trend and soared. Among them, power battery materials company Guoan Mengguli closed up more than 17 times. It soared nearly 37 times during the session, setting a new high. Mengguli closed up. 1,742%, wind power reducer manufacturer Weili Transmission closed up 261%, and smart environment business supplier Bescient closed up 94%.
Mengguli has attracted market attention. The company’s main business is the production and sales of lithium battery cathode materials such as lithium cobalt oxide and ternary materials. Mengguli once rose nearly 3,700% on the 9th, setting a new record for the first day of registration for new shares. The largest increase in the session. The previous record holder was Duke Culture, which was listed on July 19, 2021, with the highest closing price of 1,942.58% that day. Mengguli closed with a 1,742% increase, becoming the runner-up to Duke Culture in terms of closing increase.
After the Chinese financial company Magic Empire Global went public on August 4, 2022, its stock price soared 5,800%, triggering multiple trading suspensions due to stock price fluctuations.
Shares of Chinese construction company Huitong Construction rose nearly 600% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in February 2022, and shares of bus manufacturer Zhongtong Bus rose between May and July 2022 590%.
Stocks related to the new coronavirus epidemic are also called “lottery-like stocks” and their performance has been better than the market. In 2021, the stock price of Andon Health, a small medical company in Tianjin, rose 560% on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, in part because the company signed an agreement with the U.S. Army in January 2021 to supply home-use COVID-19 testing reagents.
Taiwan
In the past, Wistron was no different from other ODM electronics manufacturers. It was a well-known long-term bullish stock on the Taiwan stock market, and its stock price has almost stagnated in the past 20 years. From 2002 to 2023, for 21 years, the stock price only increased by 46%.
From the beginning of 2023 to July, the situation reversed, but within seven months it rose 434%! The main reason is that after joining Nvidia’s AI server OEM supply chain, the business proportion of GPU accelerators, AI servers, and server racks continues to increase, which in turn drives profit growth.
Hong Kong
AMTD Digital’s stock price has fallen by 71% from its highest point on August 2 as of August 9, 2022, and its valuation has shrunk by US$100 billion. However, its trading price is still 46 times the IPO price, and its valuation is much higher than that of established technology companies such as IBM, PayPal and SAP. AMTD Digital’s revenue in 2021 is US$25 million, while IBM’s revenue is as high as US$57.4 billion.
No one, including the company itself, knows why its stock price has performed so well. In the so-called thank-you letter to investors, the company stated that “since the company’s IPO, there have been no major circumstances, events or other matters related to the company’s business and operations” that could explain the reason for the skyrocketing stock price.
India
The share price of Indian small-cap Elcid Investments suddenly surged 66,900 times on October 29, 2024. The share price rose from 3.53 rupees to 236,250 rupees, setting a new world record. It continued to rise the next day, and the share price reached 248,060 rupees. , with a total market value of nearly 50 billion rupees.
Elcid is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and its main business revolves around investments in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. Since 2011, the stock price has remained at about 3 rupees, but on the 29th, the stock suddenly soared to 236,250 rupees per share, an increase of 692,535%, which shocked many investors and analysts.
Vietnam
VinFast (VinFast, ticker: VFS), an electric car brand known as “Vietnam Tesla”, was listed in the United States on August 15, 2023. It soared 254% on that day, and its market value far exceeded that of old brands such as Ford and General Motors. factory. The stock price fell by more than half the next day. Then, after six consecutive trading days of gains, Yuekui’s stock price plummeted 44%, and its market value evaporated by US$83 billion overnight.
On May 8, 2024, Yue Kuai, an electric vehicle manufacturer owned by Vietnam’s richest man, saw its stock price fall by 65% in 2024 alone.
Malaysia
Starbox Group (ticker: STBX), a Malaysian digital payment company, opened sharply higher on the first day of its US IPO on August 23, 2022. The increase once reached 1055% and hit the circuit breaker. Then the increase fell back and finally closed up 285%. It rose again after the market. Over 23%.
In the 12 months ended September 30, 2021, Starbox Group’s revenue was only a measly US$3 million.
Brazil
Ambipar Participacoes e Empreendimentos, a Brazilian waste management company, has been targeted by the country’s stock exchange operator after its stock price soared 1,130% in the year ending December 19, 2024. The Brazilian stock exchange also asked the company to explain the “unusual fluctuations” in its stock price, which soared 94% from December 11 to 13, 2024.
There is no explanation for the company’s stock surge other than the recent purchases of the company’s shares by founder Tercio Borlenghi Junior and investment firm Trustee DTVM, which increased buying pressure and fueled the short squeeze.
The Brazilian Stock Exchange issued a statement on the evening of December 17, 2024, saying that it was not aware of any information that justified the recent stock price movements. Ambipar said that the company had also asked people who might have had access to relevant information and that these people “did not “We are aware of any undisclosed actions or facts that could justify such stock price movements.”
Closing words
Retail investors have “limited financial literacy.” This lack of experience can make them vulnerable to market manipulation and fraud, such as pump and dump tactics.
Just like my point of view on any touted stocks, if you care about your hard-earned money, stock market stocks, penny stocks, meme stocks, internet celebrity stocks, or lottery-like stocks, absolutely don’t touch them──unless you have too much money, don’t care if you lose money. Then I advise you to go to Las Vegas and gamble legally. At least the local food, accommodation and entertainment environment are very good, and it is legal locally.
Related articles
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- “List of behaviors that are bound to fail when investing in stocks“
- “Most investors’ problem is concepts and psychology, not stock selection“
- “Investment concept not worth trying at all“
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- “The great enviable advantages of young people investing in stock“
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- “How young salary people could get rich by stock?“
- “Why shorting is extremely dangerous to retail investors?“
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- “Seeking Alpha, which can greatly improve the investment capacity of U.S. stocks“
- “Why timing the market or swing trading simply not work?“
- “Investors who chase for touted stocks“
- “Retail investors’ wrong investment concept not worth trying at all“
- “Supermicro, a repeat offender of scandals, valuation is not justified and unsustanable, no worth for long-term holding“
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