This post will do US Taiwan stock comparison to help investors understand that both markets are currently in a bull market.
US Stocks market
All three major indexes hit record highs
US stocks hit new all-time highs on September 22nd. The S&P 500 closed at 6,693.75, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,381.54, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 22,788.976, all hitting new intraday highs and new closing records. Prominent companies, particularly technology stocks, have seen their share prices almost all hit new all-time highs recently. The S&P 500 has reached a new high for the 28th time since 2025.
As of September 19, the total market capitalization of major global stock markets exceeded US$121.6 trillion, of which the US stock market accounted for half with US$66.74 trillion, more than five times the second-ranked Chinese stock market’s US$12 trillion, and set several historical records.
Key Economic Indicators
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack expressed her continued concern about inflation, which has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target for more than four years. She urged policymakers to be cautious in cutting interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Powell noted that while American graduates face a difficult time finding jobs, layoffs are also low. This environment of low layoffs and low hiring makes it difficult to gauge the impact of artificial intelligence. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%. This is due to a contraction in the labor supply caused by a sudden slowdown in immigration.
On September 23, Powell reiterated that the Fed is facing the dual risks of rising inflation and falling employment. Concerns about worsening employment prompted last week’s interest rate cut, but he pointed out that multiple indicators showed that current stock market valuations are “quite high.”
Market Indicators
The following indicators indicate that the US stock market is at the peak of its bull market:
- The S&P 500’s average earnings-to-earnings ratio is 31.
- The IPO market is booming, with 247 IPOs since 2025.
- A 190% rebound since the COVID-19 trough in 2020.
- The Buffett Indicator is 220% (normal value is approximately 150%).
- The CAPE indicator has reached the 98th percentile of nearly 150 years of historical statistics.
- The proportion of retail trading (less than 100 shares) has surged from 31% in 2019 to 66%.
- The three major US stock indices have repeatedly hit new highs.
- Trading volume reached its third highest level on September 19th.
- Many stocks you and I are familiar with have recently hit record highs.
- The S&P 500 has increased by 14% since 2025, and the Nasdaq has increased by 17% since 2025.
Taiwan Stock Market
Index hits record high
The following indicators indicate that the Taiwan stock market is at the peak of its bull market:
- The total market capitalization of listed companies reached NT$91.79 trillion, or US$3.035 trillion, surpassing Germany to become the world’s eighth largest stock market.
- Eight stocks surpassed NT$2,000.
- A total of eight stocks with a market capitalization of NT$1 trillion reached flat highs, with nearly all hitting new highs.
- On September 23, TSMC closed at a high of NT$1,340, with a market capitalization of US$1.14 trillion, setting a new record high.
- The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index closed at 26,247 points.
Economic Indicators
- Uncertainty surrounding the 20% reciprocal tariff
- The New Taiwan dollar/US dollar exchange rate has fluctuated by over 10% this year.
- The industry’s contribution to the economy is overly concentrated, relying almost exclusively on the semiconductor high-tech sector.
- Underperformance in employment figures is poor.
Unfavorable Factors
- The Buffett Indicator is at 310% (normal value is approximately 150%), significantly higher than the US stock market’s 220%.
- Funds are overly concentrated in 35% of individual stocks.
- 65% of individual stocks have fallen below their annual moving averages.
Simple Comparison Table
| As of 9/22/2025 | S&P 500 index | TaiEx |
| Point | 6,693.75 | 26,247.37 |
| YTD performance | 14.06% | 14.96% |
| Performance from 4/8/2025 bottom | 34.34% | 50.92% |
| Average P/E | 31 | 21.77 |
| Buffett indicator | 220% | 310％ |
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